Monday, September 18, 2006


You are someone who really does understand me and then goes on to forumulate practical plans and ideas that I believe are really worth being considered. The military doctrine of the U.S. forces in Iraq does really need fundamental rethinking. To follow up the question of the situation in the Anbar have a look at this. It must not be assumed that this is some minor development. The split in the Anbar has been developing for some time now. The anti-Qaeda and anti-terrorist sentiment has been growing steadily in the province. The atrocities committed against the people there are not less terrible than those perpetrated against the Shiaas and the people elsewhere in Iraq. This is an urgent call not to let down the people in the Anbar who want to do the right thing. Don't let us have a repititon of the tragedy of Shaik Ussama Al-Jadaan. I have my own personal connections in the Anbar and I know this movement is quite real. They need help, support and encouragement urgently. Please someone take notice.

Friday, September 15, 2006


بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

Fitnah, is one of these words that I find difficult to translate succinctly; perhaps there is an English synonym unknown to me. Fitnah is sawing discord that results in conflict and violent antagonism. But in Arabic the word has much stronger connotation. There is a verse in the holy Koran that contains the following expression: “Fitnah is worse than murder”. What is happening in the land of the two rivers right now is one of the worst Fitnahs in our long eventful history. We have known in the past, persecution, intimidation and murder; but that was always organized and perpetrated by the state and its repressive organs. We have never seen though, neighbor turning against neighbor and friend upon his erstwhile friend, even kin against kin; not in our recent history at any rate. The Cancer is spreading and the Plague is raging. The atrocities committed are of unimaginable horror. Gangs are out hunting for prey everyday; anybody of the wrong sect they come across is doomed. They are not content with murder, but the most bestial tortures are inflicted on the poor innocent victim before the killing. Not to mention the eviction of families from their homes under threats of extermination, threats which are made good in case of refusal to comply. The plans of the accursed Zarqawi, rotting now in his grave, and his accomplices have proven more serious than many might have thought. The attack on the holy shrines in Samara was a masterstroke planned on the highest level by the “Elders of ToraPora” as the opening move of a serious escalation of the sectarian war that they have been seeking desperately, hoping to finally force the other side to react and thereby ignite the tit for tat acts that could deteriorate eventually into full sectarian civil war. The most important goal of the enemy is to force the general Sunni population to rebellion and total negation of the new order. They have been maddened by the lack of reaction on the part of Shiaas despite all the killings and atrocities perpetrated for more than three years, and it was more important for them to precipitate these reactions than any other consideration. They desperately sought that Sunnis be killed more than just wreaking more vengeance on the Shiaas. This time the religious leadership of Sistani and the Margiiyah could no longer restrain the people. And unfortunately, retaliation started to take place. And as usual, it is always the weak and the innocent who suffer most from both sides.

The vision of the enemy is to engulf the country in a quagmire of medieval bestiality that would completely abort all efforts of reconciliation and utterly thwart and bring down the elected government; and encouraged by noises coming out of the U.S. they hope to disgust and confuse the Americans out of Iraq with the help of the antiwar camp in the West, and some foolish councilors in America who think they know better when in fact, they understand nothing. With this main obstacle of the U.S. military removed, they can then unleash their full offensive and bring in all the "Jihadis" from all over the world and together with the Saddamists and local aroused Sunni tribesmen, they imagine they can overrun the country and massacre everybody and establish their Taliban style Emirate or perhaps Caliphate or whatever their sick minds are hallucinating. It must be said, however, that these people, despite all their exceptional capacity for mischief and brutality remain the irrational and stupid Morlocks that they really are. When it comes to calculating the consequences beyond the immediate desire for vengeance and destruction they cannot see much beyond their noses. This same trait characterized all the actions of deposed Saddam, and you all know where his policies brought us. They cannot see, for instance, that the days when they could subjugate the Shiaas and the Kurds as before are gone forever. Perhaps they might overrun Baghdad and its surrounds temporarily, but they will not be able to go much further south. As for the Kurds, they should remember that even at the height of Saddam’s power and even with the use of chemical weapons it was not possible to subdue this people. I am not related in any way to the Kurds, but I must tell you my opinion about them: this race of people is quite a decent one, considering the tough neighborhood where they were destined to inhabit. This opinion does not come from just some political bias but is based on my own personal experience. For those of you interested in history, the Kurds are the descendants of the ancient Parthians, sometime also called the Medians, a people classified as Arian or Indo-European by anthropologists. Once they had a large kingdom which is said to have been one of the most tolerant and benign in the ancient world. Archeologists have found relics of this empire. They wore very long, pointed and rather comical caps on their heads. They are tough mountain people renowned for their fortitude and constancy in friendship with those who chose to be their allies.

In the present complex befogged situation there are so many urgent questions to address that I find it hard where to start. What is clear, however is that the U.S. in particular and the West in general are facing serious challenges on several fronts, and these challenges are proving more serious than they expected and bargained for. This calls for reexamination and rethinking some previous ideas and notions and devising new approaches and methods to deal with situations that are quite different from previously conceived scenarios. The crucial questions concern the course of action that has to be taken now. What would be the best way to counterattack, conceding that the initiative seems to be in the other’s hands? The answers to these questions require much careful consideration. To start with we must ask ourselves quite bluntly: is there a way out that will ensure a satisfactory outcome from our point of view? Well to cut a long story short, I would like to begin with a conclusion contrary to good writing practice. I believe that despite all the mistakes that were made there is still a way to succeed. This way is both technical on the one side and political and economic on the other. But this has to be the subject of future posts.

As a footnote I would like to draw your attention to this . I have some inside information regarding the situation in the Anbar, where there is a real split amongst the Dulaim Tribes into anti-terrorist and pro-terrorist camps. That might be a subject for an interesting future post.

For the time being I bid you farewell and God Bless.

Tuesday, September 05, 2006


Hi, and thanks for your sentiments.

I feel it is really time that I told you in more details some of my views regarding the current state of affairs in Iraq. More specifically, it is necessary that I convey some of my concerns regarding the way the Americans are dealing with the sectarian issue and particularly the relations with the Shiaa majority in Iraq and the larger issue of the Shiaa in the whole region including Iran. I think this is one of the more urgent issues at the moment and it is essential that American policy deals with it with wisdom, intelligence and the utmost caution.

God's willing, I must find some time this friday to talk about it.


Monday, September 04, 2006

Dear Malanie,

I am so touched by your invitation. I am sure you meant it very seriously, as I know that Americans always mean it when they offer you something; unlike our rotten habbit of saying such things just to sound hospitable, without the slightest intention of honoring them. Although it is not practicable for me to move to the U.S. right now, nevertheless I really appreciate your compassion and decency. What a stark contrast to the behaviour of some people around here who are forcing families out of their lawful homes for no reason other than being of the "other sect" or ethnicity.
However, I and my family are well protected and looked after at the moment, although the future is not very clear. It seems probable that I might end up somewhere not very far from the U.S. eventually.
Regarding the situation in Baghdad, although we can't claim that the "enemy" has been beaten, one thing is sure: the Iraqi security forces are growing stronger and stronger, and are often blodying his nose quite painfully. It seems to me that responsibility is going to be transferred to the Iraqi side much quicker than what is being admitted in public. I don't know whether we are going to see a significant withdrawal of American forces soon, but I am sure that the nature of the role of these forces is going to undergo a subtle change. It will tend more and more towards observing and technical and logistic support, rather than direct involvement, although in some regions, such as the Anbar, this connot come soon.
The most urgent task of the moment is to combat this scourge of sectarianism, which unfortunately, Al Qaeda and the Baathists have succeeded in forcing upon us; a plan which was expressly and openly expounded, as for example in that famous letter by the defunct Zarqawi. Therefore, in principle, the goverment's strategy is in the right direction; i.e. to deal with the terrorists firmly on one hand and to push forcefully for "national reconciliation", on the other hand. The solution most certainly has to consider many aspects: technical, military, political and economic. I have definite ideas about some of these which I hope to find time to tell you about.
Thank you Malanie, and love to you and your family and to all my friends in the U.S. and may God bless you and bless America.

Sunday, September 03, 2006

Hi Friends,

Just to reassure my friends of my safety and all members of the familly. It is no longer safe to stay in the neighborhood where my house and all our property is situated. So I am rather uprooted these days. Otherwise things are more or less under control as far as my personal life is concerned. I thank God for giving me the means to survive. Many of my close relatives have left the country already. I am grieved at this situation in Baghdad, but it is something that I fully expected and warned of years ago. Most of the planning that is going on these days in Baghdad contains elements of the ideas that I proposed three years ago. Had action been taken then it would have been much easier.
Nevertheless, I don't think the situation is hopeless and I still believe that somehow the Government and the Americans will manage in the end, thanks to the patience and perseverence of the American leadership and the patriotic elements in the Iraqi side.
Al Maliki is proving to be a very sensible man, so far. I wish him luck.
I hope to find the time to tell you much more.
Best regards
Your friend, Alaa