Hi,

Another hurried urgent note.

There is no doubt that the political situation is very complicated at the moment. It is certain also that the U.S. and her allies remain one of the main players and important factors in this multi-sided struggle. The situation is so confused that it would need a super computer to work out all the permutations and combinations. One factor, though which must be very carefully weighed by the strategists concerns the changing fortunes of those currents within the Shiaa movement that are associated with the Sadrists and their fellow travelers and their relative weight within the Shiaa camp.

It must be realized that the situation has changed drastically regarding the public attitudes towards this group. This was largely the result of the sectarian onslaught especially after the Samara shrine accident. Since I don’t have time to give a detailed analysis at the moment I want just to jump to some conclusions to give a bit of advice to the U.S. in particular. It is crucial to avoid any direct confrontation with the Sadrists and their supporters at the moment, because the public Shiaa opinion is not going to be the same as last time. The way to combat the ambitions and aims of this group is to strengthen the other more reasonable and sane wings of the Shiaa movement. Also, of course it is necessary to resolve the political situation regarding the formation of the government. At the same time firmness against the Saddamists and terrorists should not be weakened.

It is crucial that one must not loose sight of who the real enemy is, and it is not wise to open too many fronts when the existing ones are far from being resolved. One of the few who seems to clearly understand this in the U.S. seems to be the President himself. This latest tragedy of the Bratha mosque has very profound implications. It is not just an attack on the Shiaas but also an attack on SCIRI at a time when the split within the UIA ( United Iraqi Alliance, the main Shiite group) is becoming public.

Wise rapid action has never been more necessary than at these critical times.

Hi,

I have little time for blogging right now. I just want to say that I think the ideas that have been put forth repeatedly by Richard are really worth considering seriously. I mean the ideas concerning electronic and technological means of controlling the identification process for secrutity forces and individuals. Of course this is not the sole answer to the problem but it would certainly help. Again I stress that the situation in Baghdad is very serious. The Capital is basically under siege, the terrorists are converging on the capital. Complacency about this situation can prove lethal for all concerned. Something must be done urgently.

For now I have no time to say more.

Regards

Hi,

The situation in Baghdad is deteriorating from day to day. I have warned about this long ago. The "insurrection" is lead by the Baathists, without any doubt, and they are converging on Baghdad and seriously bent on taking over. They are creating havoc in in the capital. Very soon, if this situation continues like this the city is going to be brought to a complete standstill and paralysis. The confusion and conflict between the Americans, the army and the Ministry of interior is producing a situation where the citizens don't know anymore whether the security personel in the street are friends, enemies, terrorists or simply criminals and thieves. Everybody is wearing the same uniforms. Whole sections of the city have virtually fallen to gangs and terrorists, and this is sepecially true for the "Sunni" dominated neighborhoods. People and businesses are being robbed and the employees kidnapped en mass in broad daylight and with complete ease as though security forces are non-existent, although we see them everwhere.

I don't know anymore what can be done to rescue the situation. At least, those who are supposed to be in positions of responsibility should stop lying and painting a false picture. It has to be admitted that the city is under siege and has become the front battle line. Emergency measures have to be put in place immediately, otherwise as everbody in Baghdad knows, the whole city is going to fall soon. I regret sounding so pessimistic, but the alarm must be sounded with the loudest volume possible, since what is happening is Baghdad is something really awful.

Regarding the latest developements connected to the relations between the Americans and the Shiaas, things are getting even more confused. If I have time and inclination I might post about this "weekend".

Regards to all my friends.

Hi,

Actually, it is not so much pessimism but rather realism that pushed me to write that last post. I think most people here, including the political elites realize that a civil war is something unthinkable that will tear the country apart. However, like in Yugoslavia, the sect or ethnic group that really caused the partitioning and break up of the country was non-other but that which most wanted to keep it one, namely the Serbs. By their brutality, cruelty and ethnic genocide, they destroyed any basis for coexistence between the various ethnic constituents of the old Yugoslavia. The Serbs desire for a united country stemmed mainly from their wish to remain the masters and lord it over all other groups. This situation is very similar to what is beginning to happen here. President Bush in his eloquent speech yesterday put it well. When asked who the enemy was, he defined him with precision, and he is the one who should know. For the American people, it is well to understand clearly what the President is saying.

However, amongst the Sunnis, there are some sober and decent ones; and all our hopes are pinned on these. As for the Shiaas, they should be handled with care like these notices you see on containers of glassware (and don’t turn them upside down); they have been brutalized and still are in the most savage way, and I think the whole world is becoming witness to that. It is true that some retaliation from their side is taking place at the moment but the main aggression is from the other side.

While it is right to try to build bridges and draw the Sunnis into the political process, this must not be done in a way that will jeopardize the fundamental base of support amongst those who were the real “liberated” from the Saddam regime. Some incautious and rash remarks will only benefit negative currents within the Shiaa movement. Indeed the so-called “Sadrist Current” of Muqtada has been one of the beneficiaries of this situation and has postured to appear as the real protector and defender of the Shiaa’s, making full use of the sectarian atmosphere as well as the rash remarks and attitudes by American Ambassador ( Zalmai Khalil Zad) and some other American officials. Admittedly, it would take more than just a diplomat to succeed in Iraq at the moment; he would have to be additionally an acrobat, ventriloquist, capable of tiptoeing on thin ice and a Houdini into the bargain.

Yesterday, as I was watching a program on “Al-Iraqia” T.V. dedicated to the anniversary of the start of the war on Saddam, one caller said something that is very revealing. How I wished then that the whole World could listen to this man. There was much discussion and many views expressed regarding the situation and the pros and cons; then this ordinary man of the people protested with passion and anguish in his voice, that he was a prisoner in Saddam jails for 16 years, that his father and two brothers were executed; then he started to recount some of the horrors that he had seen in jail (which I do not care to repeat); then he said this: “God has willed that Saddam commits the blunder of invading Kuwait, which brought upon him the punishment by President Bush to whom I am personally indebted and grateful, because had it not been for his heroic soldiers of liberation (these were the exact words used by this man of the people to describe the American troops), I would still be in jail today.

And yes, this summed it up. The ordinary people never forget. Never mind the fuss, never mind the fog, never mind the confusion; the psyche of a people is something fearfully profound. The American people too, should not forget the fundamentals of the situation. It was right, it was just and it was ordained by God; that a murderer and tyrant should be overthrown. The blood and sacrifices by the American soldiers and people will never be forgotten; the Iraqi people and history will always remember these “heroic soldiers of liberation” and honor their memory.

Hi,

Are we in a civil war situation already? I have no time today, only this quick note that I must tell you about it soon. Unfortunately, I must tell you that the situation is very tense and things are on the brink. Unless very energetic measures are taken quickly, I fear the situation may slip despite all the good work that has been achieved. I have definite ideas. The mood especially in the Shiaa side is getting really frightening. Beware the wrath of the Shiaa masses. Any other incident like the Samara shrine bombing will almost certainly trigger a mass uprising that will be impossible to contain even by religious leaders.

I pray that by the time I get to post to you about this subject nothing awful happens.

Regards

WAR OF THE MORLOCKS *

Bism I llah Al Rahman Al Rahim

Hi,

I must apologize to my friends for these long silences of mine. My lame excuse is the pressure of daily life, and the “struggle for survival”; and believe me, for an Iraqi in these days, this common phrase is no figure of speech.

As those who follow this blog know, it is dedicated to ideas and strategic conclusions and not a running commentary on the situation in Iraq. So let me share with you some thoughts and conclusions, which I have come to conceive over time as I observe events and actually live them personally from day to day.

To start with, let us examine the security and military situation. As I have always said, it is “no use crying over spilt milk”. Thus it is not useful and can be demoralizing to dwell on past mistakes. However, wisdom consists to a large extent in learning from one’s errors. And I think many people might agree that much of trouble that we are facing today was the result of the carelessness and slovenliness of the first couple of months after that great liberation day in April of 2003. This point of view is supported even in the book published by Mr. Bremmer, the civil administrator in the C.P.A. era, though he himself must take some responsibility for some of the mistakes. Some of the most elementary precautions that could have been taken in those days would have gone a long way towards establishing law and order then and thenceforth. It was much easier to do things then than it is now. The Iraqi people and the American and allied servicemen and women alike paid the price of errors of judgment of some “higher management” people.

However, it would be very unfair to the allied forces (mainly American) and their leadership, to belittle the tremendous efforts and sacrifices in the course of the past three years, and to underestimate the successes and achievements that were made. For instance, I have noticed that many in the States itself do not really understand the nature of military actions on the ground here. Thus, for example, the effective, sustained and carefully planned series of military operations in the western Euphrates valley of the Anbar province have been quite successful in largely pacifying this most dangerous hotbed of the insurgency, and while admittedly not completely subduing all subversive elements there, nevertheless averted a complete takeover of this large swath of the country by the enemy and creating an extremely dangerous base in which he would have been in complete control with open lines of communications, supply and logistic support from the west ( i.e. Syria and Jordan), while cutting off the country from its western boundaries. The American forces carried out the Anbar campaign mainly with little help from any other party. Some people have expressed exasperation regarding these operations thinking that they were isolated actions against an illusive and mobile enemy, whereas in fact there was a careful plan to drive the enemy on two fronts. The first front was from the east from Falluja pressing the enemy westward. The other front, which soon followed, was starting from the extreme west at the Syrian border at Al Qaim, driving the enemy eastward. The result of this campaign to date is that most terrorists are cornered nowadays in the Ramadi area, which is mid-way between Baghdad and the Western border, with much of the Anbar out of their reach. Another outcome of this campaign was that quite significant tribes of the western region turned against the terrorists, astonishingly led by that fierce “Karabila” tribe which erstwhile used to be considered one of the worst terrorist sympathizers. Nowadays, the “Karabila” together with some other quite powerful tribes of the western “Dulaim” are actively fighting against the terrorists led by the flamboyant and lovable Shaikh “Ussama Al-Jadaan”. This is the so-called “ Tribal Nakhwa forces” (Nakhwa is one of those untranslatable words meaning when one rises up in noble indignation and joins the fight in aid of a just cause). Even allowing for the bombastic and enthusiastic nature of Shaikh Ussama, no one can deny that the Nakhwa forces at least secured a large and strategic area near the important Qaim town on the Syrian border. Furthermore I can state with certainty that most of the people in the Anbar are thoroughly sick and fed up with the terrorists, having tasted Taliban style treatment (or worse) at their hands for such a long time.

Another area where the American forces have done very well is the Mosul northern area. At one time Mosul was almost completely overrun and fallen to the enemy. American forces together with Ministry of Interior forces have done very well and the region now is in much better shape, although again, pockets of terrorism still exist. Had it not been for these efforts, Mosul would have suffered the same fate that we referred to earlier regarding the Anbar province.

As a result of these successes, terrorism was pushed elsewhere in the country, notably the area near Samara in Salahudin governorate north of Baghdad, linking northwards towards the Himrin Mountains, Al Hawijah and Krikuk and of course Dialla province, infesting remote and extremely backward Sunni villages where the inhabitants can easily be intimidated and/or enticed with financial bribes, pandering to their natural bent for thieving and chaos, not to mention indigenous sectarian prejudices. Also the escalation of the frantic effort to precipitate a sectarian civil war by deliberate design and planning such as the blowing of the Al Askary holy shrine in Samara, is a sign of the desperation of the enemy, and not unrelated to consternation at the defection of the Anbar tribes of the Nakhwa movement that have dealt some painful blows against them.

But above all, and most alarmingly, terrorism gravitated towards Baghdad and its surrounding “Sunni Belt” of villages and farms, Mahmoudiya-Iskandariya-Latifiya etc. to the South; Tarmiya, Mshahda, Taji in the North; Nahrawan and the road to Dialla in the East and of course Abu Ghraib and the approaches to the Anbar in the west. These outskirts of Baghdad are the source of the worst sectarian atrocities that we have seen lately and the source of the corpses dumped daily in Baghdad these days.

So the latest military operation near Samara can now be understood in this context. The American and Iraqi military strategy seems to be to deal with the rebellious regions in turn trying to clean up the areas gradually. While we admit that Baghdad cannot be safeguarded without controlling the rest of the country this way, it is nevertheless very dangerous not to sufficiently protect the capital simultaneously with these efforts. This brings me back to my thesis, which I have expounded since a long time, and which I called “Green Zone Baghdad”, which means creating safe and stable conditions inside the capital. This will be the subject of the next post “Inshallah”, which I hope will not be another of these vain promises, which unfortunately I have made so often. I beg my friends’ indulgence and pardon for my laziness.

But before I conclude this post I don’t want my friends to think that I am disregarding the political side of the question, which is certainly of equal if not greater importance. But that aspect has to be dealt with separately. It is just that I want to finish what I have to say from the purely tactical military point of view first; because I think that in the short term it is critical to do the right thing militarily.

Finally I would like to say to all our friends in the West and America in particular, this: have no fear; the battle is far from being lost. The land of Sumeria, Akad, Babylon, Ur, Nimrod and Ashur will never die. The land where the Old Testament was written and the Aramaic of Jesus Christ was spoken cannot become extinct. The Capital of Harun Al-Rashid and the Arabian nights cannot die. Land of Abraham and the prophets, Mesopotamia is indestructible. Seven thousand years of turbulent history attest to this. Only this land will remain tortured and cannot rest or calm down until it achieves greatness again. This is a germ that has been genetic in this mystic land from the beginning of history. This same history will credit the U.S.A. in years to come to have been the one to arouse this long dormant genie.

* cf. "Time Machine" and my post some time ago.

Hi Everybody,

Greetings: Don't worry friends I am still around, only too stunned to post. Unfortunately, all the doom scenarios which I have nightmared before are unfolding in front of our eyes. Hope to post this friday or saturday.

Regards.

CARTOONS

IN THE NAME OF GOD THE COMPASSIONATE THE MERCIFUL

Hi,

Those who have been following my blog should know that I am a practicing believer in the religion of Islam; so naturally I consider it offensive to show disrespect to Islamic religious symbols or any religious symbols of any kind, for that matter. However there is more to this than meets the eye. It seems to me quite suspicious that this storm is created at this particular time. To start with this is certainly not the first time that insults and affronts of this nature appear on print in western media in many countries and places. Such things do not deserve any kind of reaction other rather the contempt they deserve. Yet there are those who seem to seize upon such opportunities for motives that have nothing to do with the apparent religious sensitivities. Clearly there are those who wish to harm relations between the West in General and the Moslem World and more particularly we should not forget the contribution of Denmark to the allied effort in Iraq. Yes friends, I who consider my self a fervent Moslem, tell you that this is an artificial storm stirred by the same kind of people who are beheading, kidnapping and blowing up market places and day workers in Iraqi cities etc. Those in the West who give such people the ammunition and pretexts to launch such pitiful shows and stir up the emotions of gullible simple people, are their allies and facilitators. Yes indeed extremism and misanthropy has many faces and colors. Myself, and many of my friends have seen even in the comments section of this blog site much of this blasphemous nonsense which most of us just dismiss as “trolling” which was a new word that my friends taught me. For my part it suffices to read just the first sentence of any such trash to dismiss the whole diatribe simply out of lack of interest above anything else and generally they do not stir any kind of emotion other than boredom. You have noticed perhaps that I never tried to ban or delete any such kind of talk; it is not even worth the trouble of deleting.

In this respect I would like to draw attention to the statement issued by the venerable Al-Sistani, who while deprecating the blasphemous sacrilege, nevertheless clearly lays the blame on the extremists and Takfiris for the harm done to the image of Islam in the World, and need I remind you of the religious status of Al-Sistani. The rage of the Islamic world would be far more appropriate if it is directed against those who blow up mosques during prayer time, kidnap murder and torture innocent travelers, and all the other repertoire of atrocities committed in the name of Islam, It is this that is the real blasphemy and real affront to the name and reputation of our religion and its great founder the Prohpet (PBU), and not some silly cartoons in an obscure Danish paper that nobody would have noticed were it not for this artificial uproar of which the real agenda and purpose is all too apparent .

Regards

Hi Everybody,

Referring to a comment by Mary: Hi Mary, you are most welcome to this forum. The post you are looking for was posted on Aug. 14, 2005, under the title “Pajama War Games”. So please look into Aug. Archives. For my part I also think that post to be one of the most important that I have made. Some other friends ask what would happen if U.S. troops withdraw hastily. I still think the scenario that I have painted then remains valid. One remark that creep Al Zawahiri made in his latest video, which was aired on that favorite Network of the terrorists, the Qatari Al Jazeera, has some truth in it, he said something to this effect: “If the United States with its mighty capabilities and its Warplanes, tanks etc. could not defeat the “Mujahideen”, how could the army of “the agents and hypocrites” (as he called the Iraqi Forces) be able to do that on their own.”

I hope my previous post is not misunderstood. I do not oppose dialogue and political means and methods; they are of course, quite necessary. However, it is as the proverb goes “Not what you do but the way that you do it”. That has been the main problem with the Americans in Iraq right from the start. None of the measures that were implemented can honestly be considered wrong, including the dissolution of Saddam’s Army and Security Forces (and this is where I profoundly disagree with all the critics of that decision). It is just that the style of doing it and the timing always seemed not quite right. What I am trying to say is that the U.S. should never loose sight of the strategic essence of its position in Iraq, no matter what political maneuvers are undertaken. It was essentially an act of liberation of a majority from the yoke of a minority. It is that deposed minority that is waging war, together with their foreign supporters who are motivated by a variety of agendas, ranging from the desperados of Al Qaeda to the scheming of regional powers trying to settle scores with the U.S., their own fears and problems being of main concern, while the Iraqi problems being simply means to selfish aims. Indeed the array of enemies lined up against the United States and its allies including the Iraqis, should never be underestimated. The fight is dead serious and the stakes are sky high, at least from the point of view of the enemies, not to mention the Iraqi people themselves.

So, accordingly, the fundamental base of support of the U.S. (even if often tacit and undeclared openly), remains that majority that stand to benefit the most from the change. While efforts are made to persuade and draw elements of the disgruntled minority into the political process and away from violence, the strategists should never loose sight of that fact and should never jeopardize their most important asset. Indeed this war is quite unique, in that it has initiated a very real revolution in the classical sense of the word. I mean a real revolution is defined as an "upheaval that results in deposing one ruling class and replacing it with another". That was the case in the American Revolution, French Revolution, Russian Revolution etc.; also the 1958 revolution in Iraq can be considered as belonging to the list. What is happening in Iraq is a classical revolution initiated by foreign intervention, because the Americans were a very special kind of invaders. I mean they never had any serious intention or will to impose any kind of ready made regime and left it to the Iraqis themselves to decide, and never mind the propaganda that talks about "puppets", "agents" and the like. There really are no agents or puppets in Iraq, and all the political groups are quite genuine representatives of their constituents, whether on sectarian, ethnic or ideological basis. If there are some opportunists, they are quite insignificant, and have not really been encouraged much by the Americans themselves. And these political groups will always determine their position according to their own interests and that of the people they represent, and consequently, the U.S. cannot count on blind allegiance from anybody important in the political scene and has to be very careful in its maneuverings, for the friend of yesterday can turn into the foe of tomorrow if circumstances leading to that change take place.

That was the point I was trying to make, in the hope that it might reach some people who are in the decision-making circles. For my part, I remain utterly convinced, that it is in the profound interest of our country and people and their future, to forge a lasting strategic alliance with U.S.; and that the Super Power can render a most needed help and protection to forge the kind of future that we are dreaming of. Furthermore, the American action in Iraq, regardless of its original motivations and causes, represents a godsend to the country and an opportunity that is not likely to happen again. And besides, the U.S. has made such a huge investment in blood and treasure, that to retreat and fail should be quite unthinkable and would have dire consequences on its future as a World Power, not to mention the War on Terror. Thus there is a fundamental convergence of interests between the Iraqi People and the Americans, to make this Project a success; and so it shall be despite all odds; God’s willing so it shall be.

Regards

TIGHT ROPE

Hi,

Happy New Year greetings to all my friends and readers.

I have not been able to post recently due to pressure of daily life. We are facing a major onslaught by the enemy. The U.S. presence in Iraq is trying a very treacherous ropewalk at the moment. The situation is fraught with danger. The U.S. authorities are being too anxious to ingratiate themselves to the various Sunni groups in a way that I think is going too far. I hope to find the time to say something more detailed about this. They are not going to win over the terrorists, but they run a serious risk of loosing their fundamental base of support in the country. It is of course, required and necessary to strike a balance and find a way to draw the Sunnis into the political process, but it must be done within clear boundaries and without giving any ground to the terrorists. And if there are any criticisms or misgivings about the conduct of the Interior Ministry or the Defense Ministry, they can be made known to those concerned through discreet and private channels and not by public statements and in the media. Al Zawahiri, Bin Ladens’ spokesman, has lost no time in proclaiming victory and stating with malice that the Americans are "begging" to engage the "Mujahideen" in dialogue. Serious correction of American policy is required urgently, otherwise this may prove the biggest error yet, and already the emboldening of the terrorists is noticeable, which I think is largely encouraged by the shift and indecisiveness of the American position.

The daily genocide cannot continue without reaction by the majority. Neither the MNF nor the Iraqi Government can afford to standby and watch this without action. This is the answer by the enemy to the development of the political process. He is launching an all out attack against the basic infrastructure and the daily life of the people in its most mundane details. The people are boiling and a general conflagration is just around the corner. A situation might develop which will completely wreck all the gains that have been achieved, and render the situation quite untenable.

I am sorry to sound so negative, but I just don’t have the time to be more diplomatic and this is a brief message of warning, which I am hoping might reach the people from this humble forum.

Salaam, and wishing that the New Year might be a little less disastrous than the previous one.

Regards

Hi,

One of the most awesome and mystical phenomena in existence is how truth always finds a way to assert and vindicate itself despite all odds, fog and confusion. They said that no valid elections could be held “under occupation”; and when 8 millions went to the polls last time, they dismissed that with the pretext that the other 6 or 7 millions did not, that there was fraud, that the "Shiaas" and "Kurds" were taking advantages etc. etc.; and therefore the thing had no validity. What about it now? Now that the Sunnis had the slightest chance and a little respite from intimidation, we saw them march to the polling stations in their millions. How about that! If the Americans were rigging and faking things and organizing "shows", why would all these people risk their lives and turnout in this fashion, even as many of them may be harboring negative feelings and resentments? Would it not be more logical and appropriate to continue boycotting and shunning such infernal theatricals staged by the wicked Americans and their allies, such “infidel satanic wedding parties” as our eloquent friend Zarqawi called it recently? Does that not demonstrate in the most striking way that everybody in Iraq has come to realize that this is a genuine and real process in which it is worthwhile to risk one’s life to participate? Indeed the Sunnis have suffered the most in murders, assassinations and intimidation in the days leading up to the elections as a result of their active campaigning and electioneering efforts. Even the most extreme and resentful opponents of the new order had to concede and step aside; for instance the extremist Sunni “Council of Muslim Scholars” had to say that although it maintained its position of not recognizing the political process “under occupation”, “people were free to exercise their choices”. Yes, they had to bend in the face of the overwhelming wishes of the Sunni masses.

Today was a tremendous moment of our history, a turning point and a real milestone. Say what you like; things are not perfect; there are countless problems; the “insurgency” is not going to disappear; the reconstruction effort is in shambles; there is corruption and thieving everywhere; errors and mistakes in everything. Yet despite all that, the political process is proceeding like a dream and the tree of freedom is taking roots, and that tree will continue to grow and grow and grow. The Iraqis are again confounding all the "pundits" and "experts". But some just cannot understand the true soul of a people. That this most profound revolution initiated by an act of liberation, by the daring praxis of the Americans, driven by some mysterious hand of the Providence, has touched the innermost womb of a nation, and that the present agonies of this nation are those of giving birth and new life. Oh no, that they cannot understand. Well then, let them witness surprise after nasty surprise that will confound their logic and demolish their arguments. But the word mongers will always find something to say, as wild dogs are always wont to bark all the more hysterically as they are irked.

The word of truth has a life of its own; it seems to perpetuate itself and spread in the consciousness and subconscious of peoples and generations like some incurable virus, that may remain dormant for a while but will manifest itself in the most dramatic way sooner or later.

BAPTISM OF BLOOD

Hi,

The historical elections are upon us. And again the Iraqis are showing their incredible courage. Candidates are being assassinated on daily basis. Even poster workers are being shot and targeted by the dozens. Car bombings and suicide bombings have become almost routine occurrences. Death and intimidation all over the place; but does that stop anybody? Not in the least. The lists of alliances and parties are bewildering. For myself I am still undecided on whom to vote for. I only know the ones that I definitely cannot elect. I don’t think though, that we are going to see any big surprises. The United alliance ( shiaa religious parties) will still get a large vote, though not as large as before. The new thing this time is the change in electoral rules, particularly the reserved seats for provinces which will insure representation for the Sunni parties. I must say that the electoral system is quite interesting, for apart from reserved seats for the provinces there is a considerable number (about 40 seats) reserved for the so-called excess votes which will provide a chance for many smaller groups.

Although I am a religious man, but all religiously based groups are completely out of consideration as far as I am concerned. That leaves the choice between “seculars” such as Allawi, Chalabi, Alusi & etc. There are people I like in many slates and the choice is hard. I know that this is the position of many people like me. My favorites such as Ayad Jamaludin, Mithal Al-Alusi, Laith Kubba and some others are scattered in competing slates. The problem with Allawi is that he is too soft with the ex-baathists and it is feared that he may bring back too many of them to infiltrate security and military organs, which can be very risky. Although he has many good people with him, I don’t think he will fare too well. I think the Iraqi Congress Party slate (Chalabi) will probably do better than most people expect. So whom to vote for? It is really puzzling. Probably I will end up electing Mithaal Al-Alusi, not so much because I think he can do much, but as a salute to a truly honorable man who has sacrificed his two sons and is still up and fighting. A man who is truly free from sectarian prejudice and any other kind of prejudice (being himself a most genuine Sunni from the heart of Anbar province, yet that does not influence him in the least from being fair and just towards everybody). Yes indeed it seems to me that this is the man worthy of my vote.

Hi,

Long time no see. Your friend Alaa is still alive and well by the grace of God. So many things are happening that I was kind of jammed not knowing what to comment on. The speach by President Bush was great. It should be clear to anyone with even minimum amount of intelligence, that if anybody has the facts it is the President; he does have more that one hundred and fifty thousand men and women on the ground to report to him.

And I am always astonished at people wondering about how the Iraqis feel about the American and allied presence in Iraq. Was not the present Iraqi Goverment elected by 8 million people at the risk of their lives? Are the more that two hundred thousand soldiers and police not Iraqis, or perhaps they came from Mars? The first formally requested that the mandate of the Multi National Forces be extended, and the second are fighting and dying side by side with Allied forces. The President spelled out very clearly who is the enemy.

As long as the Americans remain pro-Iraqi, the Iraqis will remain pro-American, not matter what is said and no matter what din and noise is made. And as the famous arab proverb goes: "The caravan marches on and heeds not the barking of stray dogs".

Salaam

ARAB MEDIA

Hi,

End of Ramadan and Eid greetings to all the Muslim peoples of the world, I pray to God that he may bless them and inspire thoughts of peace and humanity in their minds and give them a true understanding of the tolerant and charitable essence of religion..

As I have said before, the War on Terror should take into account that perhaps the main arena of the struggle is the Media and Information fields. This terrorist phenomenon combines primitive urges and ideologies with the use of the modern technologies of satellite T.V. the internet etc. In fact, the Al Qaeda and Al Qaeda-like people design their operations with the prime objective of attracting maximum media attention. Thus Media attention is a weapon in itself, and the main one from the view point of these terrorist groups, and this subject should be a matter of primary consideration to strategists and planners of the War.

In this respect I would like to shed some light on the situation of the Arab Media, who are playing an important and direct role, especially in influencing the peoples and events in the region including those most directly involved, namely in Iraq.

Actually the most important event in the recent history of Arab journalism was the advent of satellite T.V. and the establishment of Al-Jazeera Network some years ago, financed and controlled by the Qatar Sheikdom government. That was the first time that the traditional style of direct soviet style crude propaganda customary in the whole of the Arab world was replaced with a western style that uses indirect and more subtle methods with a guise of objectivity and factual reporting. We must give it to Al Jazeera that it was a pioneer in this respect in the Arab world. This started a kind of revolution with other media outlets of similar style rapidly springing up and also the conversion of many of the more traditional ones to this new way with varying degrees of consistency. The other most important development was the spread and the expanding availability of the Internet, a great innovation which brought beside great benefits also great dangers. Thus the internet is the perfect medium for clandestine groups enabling them to keep their anonymity while giving them the means of disseminating their ideas and communicating throughout the world. In this way this communication revolution with was developed, originated and continues to be maintained and run by the West, has also provided lethal and effective weapons to its enemies.

Objectivity, which is the main pretended feature of this new style, is only a guise as far as Arab media are concerned in the vast majority of cases. Wherever you have regimes in firm control of their constituencies, you can be sure that true independence and impartiality of the press is pure sham. I could say that today only in Iraq, Lebanon and to some extent Egypt the press is more decentralized and may represent more diversity of positions.

Let us for example concentrate on two of the most important and well financed groups, namely, the MBC (Middle East Broadcasting Corporation), which includes Al-Arabia Station; and the Al-Jazeera Network. Both of these stations are dedicated to news in the style of CNN. The first of these is owned and financed by the Saudis. During the course of events that followed the fall of the Saddam regime, one could trace a definite evolution in the tone and leaning of this station directly related to the development of the official Saudi Arabian attitudes. Initially, this station competed with Al-Jazeera in negative and inciting reporting. However as the Kingdom of S.A. became engaged in a real struggle with Al-Qaeda elements, the station quickly moderated its tone and became less seditious, which clearly illustrates my point that these media are basically controlled despite all semblances of impartiality. This change of tone earned the Arabia a car bomb and several assassinations of its staff in Baghdad.

Al-Jazeera, however, continues to maintain its intransigent and highly pro-terrorist attitude, without even much attempt at disguise anymore, but always in the same style of speaking through so-called experts and invited guests and specially engineered programs with maximum dramatic impact. It has almost become the mouthpiece of terrorists in Iraq and elsewhere, widely publicizing Internet Claims, terrorist videos, Al-Qaeda tapes of Al-Dhawahiri et al., discussion programs featuring the most extreme people from Iraq and elsewhere, heaping crude abuse on the Americans, the Iraqi government, the political process and all. For Iraqis it has become almost impossible to watch this station for even a short duration without having their blood pressure seriously rising. As far as anti-American propaganda goes it is actually more superior and effective than any that North Korea can dream of. What is paradoxical, is that the regime behind this outlet claims to be the most faithful ally and friend of the U.S. to whom it owes its prosperity and security especially in the face of historical claims by Saudi Arabia, and often makes very friendly gestures towards Israel, and where the biggest American military base is located housing the command of American forces in the entire region (Siliya, Qatar). To western people who do not understand the M.E. this may sound very strange. The answer however is very simple: Sectarian prejudice, i.e. the pathological hatred of the Shiaa sect, which is the majority in only one Arab country which is Iraq. Indeed, the only Sunnis who are inclined to be more tolerant towards the Shiaa’s are the Iraqi Sunnis, especially in cities, having lived side by side for many centuries. Thus the fury of the Arabs and other Moslems against the Americans is not because they invaded and occupied Iraq, but because as a result of this action and the fall of the Saddam regime, the Shiaas have become liberated and acquired a louder voice. This by the way is also the main factor fanning the “insurrection” and terrorism in Iraq, a fact which is publicly proclaimed by people like Zarqawi. Thus the development of representative democracy with the Iraqi Sunnis taking their rightful place is the real antidote to these stupid prejudices. This is the hope of all patriotic Iraqis of all sects and the final happy outcome that we are all praying and working for.

Hi,

Ziad - http://healingiraq.blogspot.com/ has spoken again, very briefly. The Iraqi blogosphere has missed his voice for a long time. To Ziad: Your voice is more needed now than ever. It doesn't matter what you want to say, we all know that whatever you say is sincere conviction. I join my voice to the multitude of your fans to return to blogging and illuminate us with your informative and enjoyable writing. And I am very happy to know that your are still there safe and sound.

WINDS OF CHANGE

Hi,

Rather, Hurricane force “Winds of Change”; that is what we are experiencing. Do you realize the significance of the results of the constitution referendum? To start with you have the percentages and figures. Of registered voters about 63% turned out to vote. Of these voters 78% voted "Yes" and 22% voted "No". Most of those who voted No were Sunnis. Some of the Sunnis have voted in favor, especially in Mosul. Therefore the percentages really reflect the percentage of Sunnis in Iraq. It is interesting that in Baghdad, roughly the same proportions of Yes & No’s as the overall figures, which goes to show that Baghdad has a sectarian mix almost representative of the whole country.

Not all those who voted No are terrorist sympathizers. The terrorists would rather have people boycott the referendum. For instance you could see the confusion in the ranks of the “Nay” people, in the vague statements from the Council of Muslim Scholars (representing the extreme Sunni position), regarding participation or boycott of the referendum.

In any case the results dealt a painful blow to the enemy. Most people in Iraq sighed with relief. At last the “transitional phase” will be over and we shall have a regular government and a permanent constitution. The losers however are not known for their sporting spirit and are feeling very sour, as witnessed by their hysterical statements and ridiculous and lying claims, which of course will translate into the kind of crimes against the people that have become so customary. This is not resistance to occupation (an occupation that does not exist), as some like to call it, nor is it an “insurgency” with any clear objective except some vague and false slogans; it is essentially racist and sectarian hate crimes. That’s what it is without doubt. But you see, with the success of this referendum and balloting, things are moving forward fine, really fine. The Sunnis have only two alternatives politically: One is to participate strongly in the coming elections and therefore to start being seriously involved in the political process, an option that should be highly encouraged and there are indications that many of the Sunnis are leaning that way. Another course is to continue in an attitude of apathy, sulkiness and submission to the intimidation of the terrorist and extremist elements, and the propaganda of the hate mongers of the MSM lead by pople like Al Jazeera; in which case their representation in the coming parliament will be as poor as it is at the moment which is not in their interest. In other words the progress of the political process has placed the disgruntled Sunnis in a check mate situation.

But the progress towards democracy is unstoppable and inexorable and total victory is in sight. The enemy is now counting on one and only one forlorn hope, and that is to wear down the resolve of the American and western people, with the help of the MSM, which explains the latest explosions near the Meridien/Palestine hotel, a show staged entirely for the benefit of the MSM cameras that obliged and did their part admirably. The terrorist game is at least 90% TV and Internet phenomenon, deprive them of these and you will deal them a blow far more fatal than any kind of military action. The terrorists know very well that the Iraqi people are not going to give up or submit; therefore their hopes are pinned on influencing the peoples of the free world, encouraged by reports in the MSM. In any case it is becoming clear that their senseless crimes are not going to help them achieve anything, and it seems that they don’t even have any clear ideas or objectives to speak of apart from destruction and hate.

The American and Iraqi military campaigns have achieved considerable success, and it is more essential than ever to persevere and stand firm at these critical times, I mean from now until the coming elections in December, at least. Firmness must be accompanied by no less determined efforts to draw in the reasonable elements from the Sunnis to the political process and full participation in the coming elections. This includes reinforcing and helping the local leaders and tribal communities who wish to maintain the peace in their areas and combat the extremists and terrorists, and there are quite a number of these, from my own personal knowledge.

Both Iraqi, American and allied sacrifices have been painful and costly. The blood of those falling in the cause of freedom must not be in vain. Some people in America ask the question: “what’s in it for us?” I think it would be more appropriate for the question to be: “What will be the consequences of retreat and defeat?” Yet the fruits of success and victory are shiningly apparent too, and we should have no need to explain these.

As has been frequently said “defeat and retreat is no option”; and this is truer now than ever with victory in sight, and with a bit of good planning it should not take long, Gods Willing. Personally I haven’t the slightest doubt about it and I am one in the midst of events and one who should know.

Salaam

Hi,

Today a particularly heinous crime has been committed. I am referring to the slaying of building laborers slain near the accursed village of Jurf Al Sakhar, south of Baghdad. 12 men mostly belonging to same two families were slain for no reason other than pure sectarian and racist hate. These poor laborers were slain as they were toiling for their daily bread. This abominable village mentioned above has been the source of many of such acts and is inhabited by certain well known murderous and callous Sunni tribes. These are thieves and criminals by tradition and a place from which many of the actual thugs and torturers of Saddam torture chambers used to be recruited.

May God forgive me for saying this, but if ever a case for collective punishment can be made it is for this kind of zombies and animals. And quite frankly I just cannot understand why this particular village has been allowed to continue its genocidal atrocities for so long. It is not a large place, and it seems to me absolutely clear that the perpetrators can be found amongst the miserable peasants living there. And moreover the identity of these criminals is sure to be known to every villager in the location. And yet nothing seems to have been done, and no response and no action of any sort to find the culprits. This is the tragedy, and until we have security forces that would not allow things like this and can take immediate action, we are far from achieving our goals.

Hi everybody,

I am very touched by the fine sentiments expressed by many of my friends, but I must say that

it is the kind of response that I expected which reinforces my belief in the goodness of heart of

my friends.

Rick wrote:

"Alaa,

Any comment on the above survey? Would you say this is true?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/ 20051...iraq_britain_dc

The link

Rick"

My response to this survey is simply that it cannot be accurate. And why believe this kind of poll when you have the results of the referendum and elections to go by.

A simple fact: Regardless of what you think of the new constitution and regardless of what those voting in the referendum think concerning this document, it is a fact that each person voting is opting for the political process rather than any form of violent action. This is especially true for those voting yes. Now, out of 15 million registered voters approximately 10 million turned out to vote. This is despite the threats and intimidation. This turnout is very respectable by any standard and is more so owing to the security situation and the intimidation.

The enemy has done everthing in his power to discourage people, and you must have heard of the relentless violence and killings that preceded the referendum. Nevertheless, the Iraqi people have demonstrated again that they will not be intimidated and that they are prepared to risk their lives to go to the polling stations.

What the "insurgents" have always insisted is that everybody boycot any form of political and even civic participation, and in that they have been repeatedly rebuffed and repudiated by the people. How can you reconcile all these facts on the ground with contentions such as those which this poll is trying to suggest?

Regards

IN THE NAME OF GOD THE COMPASSIONATE THE MERCIFUL

Hi,

Hearty greetings to all my friends – actually I have been away for a few days. Guess where? To the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia! That was to perform Al Umra, a religious tradition which is less demanding than Hajj, which I had been fortunate enough to perform a couple of years back, Wa Alhamdu lillah (Praise be to God). It is quite an interesting subject, as a ritual, which I might talk to you about sometime.

Now I know that some of my friends may not be particularly fond of Islamic rituals nor especially well inclined towards the Islamic religion itself. You must know that personally, I don't blame them at all and find their attitude perfectly understandable in view of the great damage done to the reputation of our religion by the Takfiris and the terrorists and the like. We ourselves are extremely dismayed by the actions and attitudes of many of our fellow Muslims, so how can we blame others for quite rightful indignation in the face of the atrocities and abominations of the so-called "islamist" extremists and "fundamentalists". Yet I have a very difficult request which I would like to submit to my friends; and that is for them to try to overcome their just anger and look at the thing from a broader perspective and understand that the present day phenomena are but ephemeral aberrations, and that years away from now they will only be remembered as historical curiosities. But the great religions will still be there, the Islamic faith, the Christian faith and the Jewish and other great religions of humanity. Each one of these great faiths is valid and is a particular way to communicate with the same eternal truth. That is my view and it is a big subject that requires much more explanation, perhaps in future posts.

But what I wanted to tell you today is that facing the holy Kaaba, which to us is being in the direct presence of God, I remembered my friends on this blog and prayed for them too. I prayed that you may be blessed with happiness and prosperity and spared from evil. Honest to God I did. I just wanted you to know.

Salaam

Hi,

It is about half an hour to Iftar time. This is the most difficult part of the day. I don't know about others but I tend to get very irritated and easily provoked about this time. So I have these difficult minutes to kill, so I thought I kill them with you.

So here is my nasty thought of the day (So much for Ramadan bringing you tranquility and peace of mind; and may God forgive me for saying this): Here we have the U.S.A. and Great Britain and their smaller friends, an alliance that has defeated Nazi Germany and the mighty Reich, and have had the stomach to obliterate Japanese cities with atomic bombs. Here we have the Americans, the descendants of those who wrested a whole continent by shear obstinacy and fought for every inch of land with blood and sweat. Here we have nations that have waded through rivers of blood and mud and marched through entire continents to become symbols of human perseverance and enterprise. Yes all this history and yet we have some who think that our miserable "Sunni Triangle" poses an insurmountable problem and that one should "cut and run" and "bring home troops immediately" etc. etc.

I salute President Bush who does not care much for this kind of defeatism and treats it with the contempt it deserves.

Salaam