"Alaa,This link: http://belmontclub.blogspot.com/has a great deal of analysis of the current battle and future plans for gutting the insurgency ……..
Thanks Bridget, the articles you are referring to are indeed very interesting. It is a fact that the so-called “insurgency” is not simply some isolated actions by angry men, but a secret army with a certain degree of organization and logistical support. Geographically it is situated in certain provincial “Sunni” areas which are listed in the article you refer to. What is going on now is a real continuation of the military campaign as the enemy has fallen back and regrouped rather than accepting defeat and getting involved in the political process.
I would venture to say that the leadership and main backbone of this “insurgency” consists of members of the deposed regime, i.e. Baathists, especially those belonging to the various military and security organizations of the regime. Some of these men have adopted new religious garbs, perhaps not entirely as pretense, but a kind of psychological conversion trying to find a moral base after the collapse of the old Baathist ideology. However, to say that Baathism had an “ideology” is to give it an unmerited distinction. It was such a hotchpotch of ideas and words which you could hardly make any sense of. Many of these modern secular movements with sparkling poetic names ( Baath means resurrection in Arabic) degenerated into very thin and poor disguises to some much older and traditional prejudices and divisions. This regrouped secret baathist army controls and makes use of religious groups and foreign volunteers, as well as considerable local and foreign funds and resources. Politically, one of their main objectives is to polarize all the Sunni population on their side, using all means possible, mainly, intimidation and inviting retaliation from the authorities which could hurt uncommitted people and then use that to inflame passions and anger. Therefore, regarding the battle of falluja, it is essential that the Iraqi and MNF forces provide escape routes and safe areas for the civilians caught in the cross fire.
But again I refer you to a post which I have made longtime ago about the rural problem in Mesopotamia. I still believe that the main problem stems from this unruly and backward peasantry, in all regions and not only in Sunni areas, with reactionary mentality stuffed with the prejudices and hatreds of centuries of religious and ethnic strife and division, and ever ready and eager for any opportunity for mob behavior, looting and thieving (Farhood, as it is called in local jargon). The Saddam regime itself was nothing but an expression and predominance of these provincial forces. It takes an iron fist and ruthlessness to restore law and order and the governance of the city, i.e. civilization.
Quoting from one of the articles referred to above:
“Allawie has also crossed his Rubicon and so, perhaps, has CENTCOM.”
Let us hope that the forces of civilization, both Iraqi and Western have the willpower and stomach to finish the daunting task properly.