Sunday, August 21, 2005


As the dialogue between the different political blocks intensify concerning the Constitution and the noticeable shift in the Sunni mood towards the political process; the real enemy: Hard core Saddamists, Foreign Al-Qaeda type terrorists and the criminal local Mafia; are getting really desperate. There are rumors in the air about an impending massive terrorist campaign – massive number of car bomb attacks, mortar attacks, and sabotage of the basic services, water, electricity etc.

This threat of possible escalation must be taken seriously; because in the present situation on the ground it is not difficult to carry out, if the enemy decides to concentrate all his forces for one massive short campaign. Although we don’t like to compare with Vietnam but it is Tet-Offensive style of thinking.

Therefore, urgent pre-emptive and exceptional defensive measures must be urgently considered. These measures must include some of the ideas that I suggested in earlier posts. For instance, controlling vehicles has proved its efficacy in the past, and still this matter is not given sufficient attention. It will not do just to sit and wait for the enemy to strike; therefore a pre-emptive campaign is called for right now to deny him initiative.

This is a warning to whom it may concern.

Sunday, August 14, 2005



Today is the beginning of another working weak in the year of 2005 of our Lord, as a chronicler of old might have said. I am a busy man, yet I cannot help stopping everything to write this, which means that I think it is more important than even the struggle for daily bread.

I do believe that the modern advanced nations, such as the U.S.A. employ people and resources to investigate scenarios on conflicts and wars as part of the effort of Defense and National Security work. So let us try this game in our own humble way and share it with others thanks to this wonderful democratizing invention of the Internet and blogging, the ordinary mans’ medium of expression.

The game that we are going to play is about our situation in Iraq, as you might have expected. But I would like to say that it seems to me that we don’t really need computers and strategy wizards to play this game as the predictions and permutations are really quite limited and mostly quite obvious. Needless to say that it is a game, so the starting positions are hypothetical and may or may not take place in reality.

So here we go:

Day 1: The American and other Multinational forces have almost completed withdrawing hastily, the decision having been taken by the U.S. administration to “cut and run” as it is said.

Day 2: The Anbar province - whole formations of Saddam’s previous organizations emerge from their holes and take control of the streets: Presidential Guards, Mukhabarat, Fedayeen Saddam, General Security, Private Security, Military intelligence, Party Units, etc. etc. ; in addition to Al -Qaida and various assortments of “Isalamists”. The whole of the province falls very quickly even before the last American soldier leaves Baghdad. The takeover takes place without any serious resistance apart from assassinations and murder of all those who are not entirely to the taste of the abovementioned. This takeover takes place over the entire western region right down to Abu Ghraib and Ghazaliya and other suburbs in Baghdad. Some fighting takes place in certain areas of Al-Anbar, but those tribes who were considered insufficiently hostile to the Americans and their friends, are quickly subdued with much bloodshed. In short the regime that is going to take over the country quickly takes shape in this region.

Other Parts of the Sunni Triangle: Similar situation develops in other areas such as Mosul, Tikrit, Sammara etc. in the North but with varying degrees of resistance and bloodshed, however the balance of force is in favor of the “insurgents”.

Diala Province: In the east considerable fighting and sectarian bloodshed, all civil services are disrupted and fighting continues.

South of Iraq: Badr Brigades, the Mahdi Army and various assortments of armed groups take to the streets and considerable fighting takes place near the southern approaches to Baghdad (the triangle of Death Latifya-Usufiya-Mahmodiya etc.) between Shiaa and Sunni groups, without any definite results initially.

Baghdad: All the middle class new neighborhoods start to be taken over by various armed groups with much looting and arson. This will be directly influenced by the speed of the U.S. army withdrawal; in particular the western part of Baghdad starting from Abu Ghraib right down to the up-scale Mansur Area.

The Mahdi Army and other Shiaa militias and tribal armed groups appear in the streets of Sadr City, Kadimiya and other neighborhoods with clear Shiaa majorities. In other mixed areas street fighting, looting ravaging and murder of families in their houses takes place on a large scale under various pretexes..Those who are weak and unarmed suffer most.

The little of electricity, water supply, sewerage and other municipal services, that there is comes to a complete halt. All shops, markets etc are closed and start to be looted.

Day 3:

The well defined main provincial areas, from the sectarian point of view, have quickly come under control of the various sectarian forces, Sunni ones in the Sunni areas and Shiaa in the Shiaa regions, and the most dangerous and destructive civil war in the history of Iraq has formally started, a war that will continue for many years and bring the country to a state worse than what followed the Mongol Invasion of Hollako in the 13th century. Ethnic and sectarian cleansing is going on within these areas with large scale movements of refugees from the various regions in all directions.

Days 4,5,6 etc.; and subsequent weeks, months and years.

It has become clear to everybody that the U.S. and other western powers are not going to come back, therefore the arena is free for all, so to speak. The Kurds withdraw into their mountainous region, and then decide to make a dash on Kirkuk. Fierce fighting erupts in and around Kirkuk, but the Kurds, being better organized and determined; initially succeed in controlling the town. Turkey cannot allow that so the Turkish army pours in from the North and the war starts between the Kurds and the Turks. The Turkish army advances quickly on Kirkuk through Mosul and after very bloody battles wrests control from the Kurds in the city. The Kurds retreat to the Mountains and start a classic guerilla war against the Turks. Turkey in effect occupies most of Northern Iraq.

Meanwhile vicious sectarian battles between Shiaa and Sunnis rage in and around Baghdad with tremendous bloodshed and huge numbers of civilians caught up in the fighting. Due to shut down of water supply the population of Baghdad starts to become desperate, and is under serious threat of thirst, so they leave their houses and flock to rivers, all that in the middle of raging battles in the streets. Organized gangs go around peoples’ homes checking identities and murdering whole families just because they happen to be Shiaa, Christian or Kurd (this is already actually happening, by the way, in a low key way in some areas).

Initially, the Sunni forces score some successes against the less organized and less experienced Shiaa forces in the Baghdad zone and south of it, despite the fierceness and carelessness about death of the latter. Hard pressed and threatened with extinction and having been abandoned by the West, the Shiaa’s have no other alternative but to turn towards the Iranians for protection. Iranian Revolutionary Guards start to pour in tens of thousands across the border to join the fighting. Soon the Iranians will be in virtual control of the entire south of Iraq and many parts of eastern Iraq. Likewise, the Kurds have no option but to turn to the Iranians in the face of the Turkish onslaught. On the other hand the previous trickle of arab terrorists and religious fanatics across the western and southern borders from Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia turns into a veritable torrent with tens and hundreds of southands pouring across to join their Sunni brothers. Turks, Iranians, Arabs, Sunni Iraqis, Shiaa Iraqis and Kurds all join in an infernal orgy of fighting destruction and death the like of which has seldom been seen.

All activities connected with oil exports from Iraq come to a complete standstill resulting in a world crisis and the rocketing of oil prices to above $ 100 a barrel at the least. Some oil fields burn and black smoke starts to spread all over the country reaching neighboring countries. The oil supplies in the entire region are jeopardized as fanaticism sweeps the region.

Al Qaeda and its affiliates and sympathizers throughout the world are jubilant, elated and drunk with the euphoria of a resounding victory against the U.S., Crusaders, Zionists, the Kafirs, the Shiaa and all other apstates. They transfer their entire cadres to the Sunni controlled areas of Iraq and establish themselves not as fugitives and underground movement but as an established force on the ground. Ripples are spread throughout the world and cells are preparing themselves to bring the battle to the very heartland of the Crusader Kafirs in The U.S. and Europe.

The U.S.A and her allies are completely discredited, and no one will ever think of putting any trust in them anywhere in the world in the future. In particular all factions involved in the fighting in Iraq will be vehemently anti-American and anti-western, especially erstwhile allies and friends who feel particularly betrayed and treacherously abandoned.

The U.S. and allied nations look on this general conflagration and explosion in the M.E. region with helpless dismay. It would take not 130 000 troops, nor one division or two or three to control such situation. All the resources of U.S., despite their tremendousness, will not suffice. It is then, that the American and Western people realize with shock and belated remorse, that if some considered the War on Iraq to be a mistake; the precipitate withdrawal and retreat is an infinitely worse error.
Well, that was a War game, don’t forget; and heaven forbids that it may come to pass. We would all rather die and be gone long before witnessing any such tale of woe.

Tuesday, August 09, 2005


Greetings to all.

I have been trying to find time to discuss the many very interesting points raised by the contributors to the comments section. Particularly, I find the contributions of Richard very interesting and full of intriguing technical suggestions. Regarding the "Green Belt" idea you raised, Richard, it might interest you to know that this is quite an old project that has been contemplated for a very long time; perhaps not quite in the specific way that you have raised. Unfortunately, Baghdad of some fifty years ago used to be much greener than now. Veritable jungles of palm groves sheltering smaller trees of all sorts of citreous fruits and other cultivation, used to cover most of the present-day built up areas. Even the weather was cooler because of the lush vegetation, and this is something which is within my childhood memories. Indeed the idea of a canal has been implemented partly during the reign of General Kassem by the name of the Army Canal. This indeed resulted in urban development of considerable proportion, but today this area is well within the boundary of the city. So, the idea you raise is very feasible indeed and should be considered quite seriously. Of-course the security aspect of the thing was not of particular interest in the old happy days; it is now, evidently.

Regarding my idea of securing Baghdad, I should really explain more fully this vital subject, which I firmly believe to be pivotal for any strategy to end this war quickly. Also through dialogue with my friends the plan can take more definite and convincing shape. But you know, there seems to be quite noticeably increased efforts by the authorities towards controlling the capital these last few days.

Regards to all.

Tuesday, August 02, 2005



I am reminded of the famous story of the little boy and the naked king. You must have heard of that tale. An ingenious swindler made the king believe that he had made for him the most marvelous attire ever styled and went through all the motions of elaborately dressing him, when in fact there was no dress at all. The vain king was thrilled and wanted to show off this marvelous dress to his subjects. The royal procession was making its way through the streets of the capital with the king standing up and waiving majestically to his people. No one dared to say that they did not see any clothes on the monarch; everyone doubting their own senses rather than disbelieving the high and mighty. It happened though, that one innocent and simple child looked up and then shouted in astonishment that the king was naked, and this blew up the whole scheme.

And so it may be with our business. Perhaps someday one poor simple pajama blogger observing events from his humble station, might cry out: Gentlemen most high and distinguished, aren’t you perhaps going about this completely in the wrong way. Don’t the most unsophisticated and simple soccer fans know, for certain, that it is not enough to have the most brilliant attackers on your team if your defense line is in shatters and your goalkeeper useless?

Yes, you have attacked brilliantly. Yes, you have coerced the enemy in many a place and inflicted heavy casualties on him. Yet the present situation is such that it seems rather more urgent to provide some "safe havens" to the people rather than just denying them to the enemy.

I am not a military man nor very experienced in security matters, yet like that child I see simple facts and am not afraid to state them. If your resources are not sufficient to cover the entire territory, then it is evident that you should employ them in the most cost effective way, to use a business term. With all the tremendous expense in blood and treasure that is being spent, is it really so difficult to establish the few score or so of real security gates that are needed at the entrances to the capital? The New Iraqi Army may be deployed in a line of emplacements surrounding the capital, and even a "security fence" of sorts may be contemplated. All vehicles in the capital are registered and accounted for. Anyone needing to enter or leave the capital must get security clearance. Controlling vehicular traffic has proved its efficacy during the elections. If the perimeter of the capital is effectively guarded, perhaps the police and the interior ministry forces will have an easier task of cleaning up and guarding the interior of the capital, without being harassed and targeted like lame ducks. All it takes is to closely monitor and control certain well-known neighborhoods of Baghdad. Imagine the situation if the capital is made safer both for the inhabitants, the MNF forces, the diplomats etc. etc. Imagine the situation if power and essential services are restored more satisfactorily, and if assassinations, kidnappings and the daily genocide of completely innocent people is stopped. Would that not allow the political process to proceed more smoothly and the reconstruction effort resumed meaningfully?

The present situation is untenable gentlemen; and cannot continue like this. I have said it before and say it again; controlling Baghdad is controlling the country. The enemy understands this perfectly and is concentrating his efforts accordingly. Perhaps I am not able to elucidate my ideas properly; perhaps some of my friends can grasp it better and elaborate more convincingly. I don’t know, but it is another of those gut feelings that I used to talk about long ago.