Friday, April 07, 2006


Another hurried urgent note.

There is no doubt that the political situation is very complicated at the moment. It is certain also that the U.S. and her allies remain one of the main players and important factors in this multi-sided struggle. The situation is so confused that it would need a super computer to work out all the permutations and combinations. One factor, though which must be very carefully weighed by the strategists concerns the changing fortunes of those currents within the Shiaa movement that are associated with the Sadrists and their fellow travelers and their relative weight within the Shiaa camp.

It must be realized that the situation has changed drastically regarding the public attitudes towards this group. This was largely the result of the sectarian onslaught especially after the Samara shrine accident. Since I don’t have time to give a detailed analysis at the moment I want just to jump to some conclusions to give a bit of advice to the U.S. in particular. It is crucial to avoid any direct confrontation with the Sadrists and their supporters at the moment, because the public Shiaa opinion is not going to be the same as last time. The way to combat the ambitions and aims of this group is to strengthen the other more reasonable and sane wings of the Shiaa movement. Also, of course it is necessary to resolve the political situation regarding the formation of the government. At the same time firmness against the Saddamists and terrorists should not be weakened.

It is crucial that one must not loose sight of who the real enemy is, and it is not wise to open too many fronts when the existing ones are far from being resolved. One of the few who seems to clearly understand this in the U.S. seems to be the President himself. This latest tragedy of the Bratha mosque has very profound implications. It is not just an attack on the Shiaas but also an attack on SCIRI at a time when the split within the UIA ( United Iraqi Alliance, the main Shiite group) is becoming public.

Wise rapid action has never been more necessary than at these critical times.

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