Hi,

A quick word; what everybody should realize is that “the new strategy” and the “new security plan” are essentially defensive or rather counteroffensive in nature. The fact is that the “SODs” have actually staged a deliberate and elaborately planned offensive to capture Baghdad, through attrition, atrocious terrorism, ethnic cleansing, paralyzing civil life, targeting professionals, laborers, shopkeepers and shops, etc. and in general aiming to destroy the city and turn it to a “burnt earth”. This SOD offensive intensified particularly after the destruction of the Samara shrines. This was a deliberate move to officially inaugurate the sectarian civil war. They succeeded in finally provoking retaliation by the Shiite groups, and the terrible aftermath has reduced the city to a situation that is fundamentally different from pre-Samara times. The situation was not normal before, true, but still, the shops were open, and doctors still worked in their clinics, and people lived in mixed areas as sectarian cleansing was not on the scale that took place later. Today Baghdad is a city half fallen. The western part of the city, under Sod control more or less, is almost dead. East of the river still has some life, but is constantly assailed by car bombs and the like.

So, this “New Plan”, is a last ditch effort to counterattack. Failure spells disaster. The Sods are waging a preemptive terror campaign at the moment, trying to abort the plan before it starts. We don’t know if too much talk about the plan with the enemy dealing blow after blow is particularly useful. Everybody is waiting and something concrete must happen soon; otherwise God only knows where we are heading.

In any case, both President Bush and the Iraqi Government, have staked their credibility on this plan, and thus are under great pressure to show some real results soon. Baghdad must be brought back to life, by hook or crook; what must be done must be done. Thus any idea that this is an escalation of the war is totally ignorant of the situation on the ground. This is a life and death counteroffensive to rescue an extremely serious situation. Firmness, even ruthlessness in carrying out the New Plan is justified by the right of self defense and self preservation. The enemy is not showing any mercy and thus deserves none. Preemption is justified in the face of genocide. Necessary measures should be taken without hesitation, no matter how drastic or harsh, including relocation of entire areas if necessary. One can go on indefinitely about possible methods and tactics. Let us hope that, this time, the Americans and the Government, can act decisively without committing too many blunders and more importantly with coordination and unison.

Good Night

Hi,

One of the most important methods used by enemy, the Sods, is disguise using police or other military and official uniforms and false identities. Almost all the mass kidnappings and other similar acts were executed using this device. Recently they went further. They disguised themselves as some kind of American force or foreign diplomatic convoy, and attacked the heart of Karbala at the provincial government building, as a security meeting was taking place. The incident was first reported by the governor office, as an attack by U.S. forces on the building, and then there was silence, presumably as they realized what really took place. The whole thing is still surrounded by mysterious reticence.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070122/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq

Update:

Later report described the incident in more specific details:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070127/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_sneak_attack

This highlights what I have always insisted upon; i.e. the necessity of finding an answer to this tactic which has been one of the main methods of the “Sods” in particular; I mean the method of disguise. This is a Sod method, and nobody else’s. Now as we have seen above they are refining and developing the method to impersonate the American forces themselves. Just consider the expense, planning and timing of this operation, and you get an idea of the strength and financing of these groups. And these are neither the Iranians nor the Mehdi Army; this I can tell you for sure. In fact, the destination where they fled to is very telling; it is a stronghold of the Sods, in the tribal and farmland areas of the North of Babil province, part of the “Sunni” belt surrounding Baghdad.

Regards.

Hi,

Quite honestly, I don’t see any thing particularly James-Bondish or exuberant about the suggestions that I have made regarding using technology to help the security situation. I mean what is difficult about establishing intelligent data bases for the population of neighborhoods; even children have become experts with computers and data bases. As for systems to monitor movements of travelers, vehicles etc., I am sure that an abundance of such software is abundant everywhere, and particularly in the U.S.

Richard B. has written in the comments section several times describing practical and very interesting technical solutions to many of the problems that we are facing. As for biometric identification and such, isn’t this technology very common nowadays and used even in the most humble of offices, not to mention passports, airports etc. etc.

Explosive detection technology exists, and we even heard that some equipment is already in place in Iraq. And I don’t even think that the cost of such things is as high as we are led to believe. I mean when the War is costing the staggering figures that you all know, what would be the significance of some expenditure on computers, some gadgets for identity detection etc. etc. ?

Some people talk again about Iraqis taking responsibly, forgetting that this is precisely the Iraqi demand and that the Government has been insisting on this question. They forget that the new strategy and the new security plan was originally proposed by the Iraqis themselves and accepted by the President. Of course American help is very important but the plan essentially envisaged a supporting role for the American forces by guarding the periphery of Baghdad, while Iraqi forces carries out the work inside the city. Since it is also a demand of the American people, why not let the Iraqis do what they are claiming they can do without too much interference? In fact they should be charged with the responsibility quite definitely and visibly in a way that the excuse of not having enough authority cannot be used by anybody again. Besides, Maliki-bashing is not very useful at this particular juncture, because that is all what we have right now, unless one wants to dismantle the entire political process and undo the work that has been done with blood, sweat and treasure. And to be sure, that is precisely what enemy is longing for; to dismantle the political process and cancel the idea of democracy altogether. That is their real objective whether secret terrorists, or political figures hypocritically joining the political process only to subvert it, with one keen eye on the public and official mood in U.S., adapting their tactics precisely according to the signals that are coming from there. They are counting on the disarray and confusion, and adapting their methods, including escalation and de-escalation of terrorist acts accordingly. President Bush understands the situation and the stakes, but even he can be sometimes influenced by domestic pressures. However, we must express appreciation of his perseverance and endurance.

And what’s all this about Iran and taking on Iran. It is not as though we have managed over here even to control one miserable city, to start thinking of embarking on a perilous course against the colossus of Iranian quick sands. It is alright to make some noises, but I am sure the U.S. leadership fully understands that there are very few real options available. Compared to other options, the best, easiest and only practical course available to thwart the Iranian regime is to succeed in Iraq. Besides, it is wrong to turn this matter into an assault on the Iranian nation, and not on the theocratic regime. This is precisely what that regime wants, and it explains the polemics of this ridiculous new president, Ahmadi Najad, who according to my youngest son looks more like a plumber than a president. As for their alleged role in Iraq, I think it is wildly exaggerated by those, in Iraq and in the region, who are playing on American phobias to serve their own particular agendas. It is wrong to confuse the issues before cleaning up the act in Iraq. In fact, the Iranian regime would rather have a confrontation at this particular time when the American situation is such as it is in Iraq. And as I have said before, the relations between the Shiaas, (and the Kurds, for that matter) and the Iranians are reciprocally proportional to the state of their relations with the Americans.

So let’s cut the nonsense and concentrate on the tasks ahead, and try to do everything possible to achieve success, with the available resources, which is possible; for the cost of failure is unthinkable even from the purely selfish view point of the interests of the U.S. alone. Need we explain these consequences in a kind of “idiots guide to woe and disaster”? I have too much respect for my friends here on this blog to even think of it.

Regards

Hi,

To comment on the planned security plan to be implemented shortly requires extensive treatment. I have been writing a lot of drafts but it requires a lot of time that I don’t have at the moment. So very briefly I would like to stress few points that I consider important and urgent amongst other things.

I have always been convinced that one of the best ways to benefit from the Americans and the MNF is the technical aid that they can bring into the equation. Our friend Richard has, on several occasions, presented concrete proposals and technical ideas that seem to me very worthy and serious information.

What is needed, in my opinion, is not just military action with guns and planes, but most of all a kind of informatics and technical blitz.

1- To combat the weapon of the car bomb – identification and careful control of all vehicles, and explosive remote detection technology.
2- To combat the individual terrorist – high tech and biometric identification and control of the population inside Baghdad to start with. This includes the “inventorying idea” that I proposed long ago.
3- To combat terrorists disguising as police, army and even lately as American forces; which is a very serious problem:
a- High tech. identification technology for genuine members of the security forces.
b- A special highly reliable and special secret service, whose task is to monitor and vet members of the security forces themselves; including mobile inspection teams to intensively check on forces deployed on the ground, and inspect military and police check points regularly to discover fake ones.
c- Mobile and rapid reaction forces, preferably air born to intervene and respond to guerilla attacks.
d- Improved communication and reporting of incidents, leading to rapid reaction and tracking of culprits. The forces on the ground should be held responsible for failures and severely accountable.

4- Lock down of the city of Baghdad at carefully studied points. The question as to where Baghdad boundaries actually are, is a crucial matter and requires very careful strategic consideration. For instance, should Abu Graib, be within or outside the protected periphery? This hotbed area is one of the havens of terrorism and the source of much of the action that afflicts central Baghdad. Likewise are the areas nearer to the center in West Baghdad. The objective is to work towards the goal of “Green Zone Baghdad” that I have proposed long time ago.
5- Recognition of the main threat and avoidance of engaging in secondary efforts that can only distract from the main objectives and open up unnecessary fronts that only serve to increase the risk to the troops and divert their attention. This point, I mention specifically concerning Shiite areas and the so-called Sadrists. These are not the main threat, and could be dealt with politically. Of course they must be controlled, but I believe the task is more political and social than military there.
6- Respect of the lives and property of ordinary citizen, and adoption of the principle of courteous and respectful approach to searches and information gathering. Avoid breaking of furniture and the various acts of vandalism, not to mention downright theft, that have been so common.
7- To distinguish community and tribal leaders in each area and convoke them before embarking on action in any neighborhood. Saddam was very effective using this method, holding these leaders responsible for what happens in their communities, recompensing them generously when cooperative otherwise punishing them severely when things go wrong.
8- Recognition that there are virtually closed neighborhoods completely under “insurgent” control (the Sods) where they can rig their car bombs, suicide men, I.E.D’s etc. etc. with complete impunity, especially after the thorough ethnic and sectarian cleansing that is almost completed by now. These areas comprise many parts of West Baghdad, Adhamiya, and in the entirety of the farmland belt around Baghdad etc. Unless there is preparedness and determination to go into these areas clean them and hold them, there is little chance of success.

These are just a few points purely on the military technical side, which does not mean that we underestimate the other more important political, sociological and economic factors, but these require volumes of research which is not within my capability at the present. But still the points above are of urgency in the immediate short term.

I throw the subject to full debate, hoping to learn more from the comments of my friends.

Regards

Paul Edwards,

Of course, any literate Muslim knows about the Mu’tazilah, mostly by name only. I must admit that I myself, took very little interest in the subject until lately for reasons rather similar to the ones that drove you. You probably know that this particular sect has suffered terrible atrocities in first few centuries of Islam and beyond. To this day; the “Orthodox” Muslim establishment (especially on the Sunni side, and more particularly the Wahabis and their like) considers this school heretical and blasphemous. Unfortunately philosophical and intellectual debate is characterized by violence and terrible persecution in our history.

And in fact, if you study the Mu’tazilah carefully, you will easily discover that they were neither atheistic nor disrespectful of the basic fundamentals of religion. They were just uncompromising rationalists, and were very typically incredibly careless about their personal safety in expressing their views in times that the general public could hardly understand or appreciate such opinions. This thought was almost forgotten and considered part of the archaic heritage of the era of theological and philosophical speculation that flourished in the early centuries of Islam, but in recent times interest in this school has seen a revival by some intellectuals and seekers of truth.

One of our friends reminds us of Sufism, i.e. the mystic schools of Islam, and that is certainly another huge subject of interest. One similarity between the two is the common fate of most of their prominent figures, that is persecution and execution often by dismembering and crucifixion. Like Al-Hallaj, the founder of Islamic Sufism; Ghailan Al-Dimashqi ( of Damascus, Syria ), continued to preach while on the cross with amputated legs and arms, until the Caliph sent his executioners to cut his tongue off. The Caliph councilors had told him: “Sire, you have cut off his arms and legs, and left his tongue that is more harmful than a thousand arms and legs”. No wonder the kings and rulers loathed the Mu’tazilah; one of their main tenets was the religious duty to rise against any unjust ruler.

For those who are interested to know more about the subject, Wikipedia does indeed have a nice introduction http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mu'tazili ; someday when I might have more leisure we could be spending a lot of time debating these subjects that are much more interesting to me personally than the mess of the Iraqi situation.

Regards

Alaa

Hi,

Well, I am tempted to say it. It may sound vain and distasteful. But, really, this new strategy, haven’t I suggested something of the sort three years ago? It would have been much easier then, but as they say, better late than never.

On the personal level, we have suffered some terrible things at the outset of this New Year. The oldest of my cousins, who is almost a couple of decades older than me, met his death by a terrible accident involving American troops. This is a problem that has occurred so often that really requires reconsideration of the way that M.N. forces are deployed. This was particularly painful as this man was one of the most harmless and peaceful of all, a man who has never hurt anybody, a man with a large family and a man who has born the full brunt of the lean years of these last couple of decades. He had to venture out in his old car in one of these dangerous neighborhoods of Baghdad to do some shopping for his family. In his whole life he never drove his car faster than an exasperating crawling speed. He always created a traffic jam behind him. As he became quite old, his sight and hearing became very weak. We don’t know what happened exactly, he must have panicked; he must have misunderstood something. All we know is that he was shot by American troops. I don’t bear any grudge against these guys. They are placed in a terrible situation. They feel threatened and can hardly distinguish a terrorist from an innocent wayfarer. This is a problem that requires solution, but the solution is easier said than done. This is the terror and terrible difficulty of urban warfare. And it is precisely this that the terrorists are counting upon.

Another incident involved a dear old friend of ours, the family dentist, a brave man, who went everyday to work in his dental clinic, ignoring all the dangers and stubbornly going on with his usual daily routine as though there was nothing happening outside. The street where his clinic is situated is a well known location in Baghdad for the private medical community. Some of the best known medical practitioners used to work there, and the place used to be bustling with patients and people, especially in the afternoons and early evening. Nowadays, it has become almost deserted after doctors, dentists and pharmacists became favorite targets for kidnappings, extortion and murder. This man just kept on going. We were always worried about him and wondered about his courage and tried to talk him into more caution; he just smiled and shrugged off our concerns. Well, at last they got him. They broke into his house, took him away together with his three cars parked in the garage. After few days, we heard that they are demanding a big sum, and most likely it is going to be paid, and even then there is no guarantee for his safety as has been the case so often. In such cases the ordinary citizen has no one to turn to. Police protection for ordinary people is something of the past, a historical memory, you might say. Well, here it is; the sad situation that we have to admit and tell the world.

Another recent incident; a young man, a friend of my son, was shot in the head in our up-town neighborhood; for no sin other than being a Sunni. Our neighborhood which used to be so pleasant and peaceful before has become within the red zone, and people are deserting their erstwhile elegant homes.

The cancer is spreading, and the ordinary decent and peaceful people just can’t continue their existence. Baghdad is being taken over by ruthless gangs and blind terror. The accursed Zarqawi plan has worked. It is not difficult to make mischief, and there is nothing for the Sadamo-Ladinists to be proud about. For history’s sake, if we have to consider chronology, the destruction of the holy shrines at Samara marked the start of a new phase, the start of a steeper descent into sectarian strife and civil disintegration. Of-course it is mainly a deliberate plan of the "Sods" (a short name that I coin and will use henceforth for this motley collection of Saddamists, Al-Qaeda types, and other “insurgent groups”. It is the point when the Shiites, especially in Baghdad, started to retaliate, ignoring the advice and admonitions of the moderate religious leaders such as Al-Sistani. And it is usually the innocent and the weak who suffer, of both sides.

So much precious time has been lost. I don’t mind saying it. I, personally in this blog have sounded the alarm long time ago. Safeguard Baghdad, I said. Protect the ordinary people I said. Safety of the ordinary people is the key to the safety of the troops and the general security situation, I said. But tragically, so much precious time was lost. I tell you, it would have been easier then and much more difficult now. I don’t say that nothing was done. A lot was done, and it must be admitted that you cannot safeguard the capital without some degree of control of the provinces, and a lot of work was done in the provinces. The situation in the Anbar, for instance, is drastically different today than it was before, and in a positive way. This was due mainly to the struggles of the American forces, after so many trials and tribulations. At long last the Americans are beginning to understand better the psychology and the nature of the people there. And indeed, the situation in Baghdad, in a way is the result of successes there and the influx of “Sods” into the capital after having been driven out of the Anbar.

Yet there is this new American strategy, and the new security plan. We have to admit that for the ordinary people of Baghdad such announcements have lost much of their credibility due to successive failure of previously much trumpeted similar attempts. Nevertheless, deep down, there is a faint hope that something different might be achieved this time. And, you know, nothing succeeds like success. Any kind of appreciable change in the dismal situation will have a huge uplifting effect. If security in Baghdad can be restored to some bearable level, and if basic services, i.e. electricity, water, garbage collection etc. can be improved to something less absurd than the present levels; then this will have a tremendous effect completely out of proportion with the actual size of the achievement. For you know for someone who is drowning, anything that can keep him afloat will produce a surge of hope. And this surge of hope can have beneficial ripple effect. Well, hope is the stuff of life. Life without hope is not possible. So let us hope and keep our fingers crossed. And at least President Bush is still there, fighting and persistent and knowing well the stakes and not shirking responsibility. Let us hope that the famous saying of Churchill ones again proves right: “The Americans always end up doing the right thing after committing all the mistakes” (or something to this effect)

Wa Al-Salam Alaykum

A TOOTH FOR A MILLION TEETH

Hi again,

I did not want to talk about the momentous events of these historical moments before extending greetings and well wishes, for these are macabre moments in the awesome presence of death. Life and optimism must precede doom and gloom. Every Iraqi is now in a high state of tension and spending a sleepless night holding his breath in anticipation of the news of the execution of Saddam Husein. As suspense is growing every moment with conflicting news about his whereabouts and about whether he has been handed over to the Iraqi authorities or not.

Personally I have mixed feelings about this execution. To start with, if the punishment for murder is to be death, according to the Law in many lands, including that of the U.S.A., and in accordance with the writ of the Great religions; then Saddam deserves at least a million or so executions. His guilt is as clear as sunlight. The Trial was frustrating for most people around here. Perhaps there should have been an international trial so that the world can see and hear the full story of some of the most horrendous crimes in the history of humanity. But do you think that his friends would have been at a loss for things to say if that had happened? Well, when there is a culture that has lost respect for truth, reality, logic, decency; and become complete slave to prejudice and bias; anything can be said and any argument goes. It is a sure sign of decline, decay and fall when a civilization starts to lose its respect for veracity and when words can be twisted to suite any purpose and present any argument regardless of the truth. For the “Word” is sacred. Remember the first sentence in the bible: “At first was the Word, then was the World”.

But it must be admitted, that there is haste to execute Saddam for reasons other than simply justice and revenge; there are political considerations. The Government wants to get this over and done with as quickly as possible to forestall any unforeseen impediments, and in order not give his followers and supporters time to plan something. Besides, Saddam is still a symbol for some, and you may remember the demonstrations in Diala, Salahuldin and elsewhere brandishing his photos and shouting the famous slogan “with Souls, with Blood, we sacrifice our lives for you”. And then there is the so-called “Return Party”, which is a group of Baathist terrorists calling for the return of the Saddam regime under his leadership. Therefore, it is of political urgency to eliminate this symbol and put an end to any hopes and illusions of a return to the previous state of affairs. Due to the extreme personality cult that Saddam had cultivated, it would be difficult for "the enemy" to find a new convincing father figure. Also it is an act of defiance in the face of all the terrorists, the Bin Ladins & Co., the international chorus and etc. etc.; here we are stringing up your Saddam and you “can ride your highest horses” as the Iraqi proverb goes. We are not afraid of your car bombs, suicide bombers, I.E.D’s etc. etc.

Anyway, I am too excited to talk more, and it is very late and I, like almost all Iraqis at this hour, cannot sleep and are all awaiting the awesome announcement at this eve of the Eid Al-Adha.

Goodnight

NEW YEAR AND CHRISTMAS GREETINGS

Hi,

I wish to extend New Year and belated Christmas greetings to all my friends and readers; wishing you all a happy and prosperous new year. I pray to God that the New Year may bring peace and tranquility to our suffering and beloved Iraq, and happiness and blessings to our friends everywhere, especially the American people.

I ask my friends for their blessings and prayers, as with Gods Willing I am planning and expecting very profound changes in my own personal life and that of my family.

Peace be Upon you and the mercy of God and his blessings.

And for my Muslim brothers I do not forget to wish them Eid Mubarak for the occasion of Eid Al-Adha.

“Alsalam Alaykum Warahmatullahi Wa barakatuh”

FIRST WAR OF THE CENTURY- EPISODE I

Hi,

While events are still fresh in the memory, and for history’s sake, I thought it might be interesting to give my own testimony as an eye witness before an imaginary tribunal, the tribunal of history. An analytical examination of events leading to the present day situation might be instructive. This I hope to do this in installments as time permits and I hope my friends might find it interesting and entertaining.

1- Just before the day of the "Square".

Mr. Blair today said something that is important and should be realized. The situation in Iraq is not primarily a measure of the failure of American and allied policies but rather the successes of the Morlocks. The New Order forces are only to blame for not being able to understand and correctly appreciate the seriousness of the threat and hence find a way to thwart the deliberate plan of the enemy (Sadamists, Al-Qaeda etc. etc.). This plan came into effect from the very first week after that glorious day of April when the idol fell in Firdous Square. There is little doubt that much of the chaos, pilfering and arson were part of a deliberate plan prepared long before the fall and carried out by special cells of baathists prepared and trained for this kind of action as part of contingency plans for precisely this kind of scenario. This is no secret and actually Saddam himself often talked about it publicly when he was in power, vowing never to surrender Iraq but an empty land devoid of inhabitants. Al-Qaeda types, extremists and suicide volunteers were imported from Arab and non-Arab countries during the weeks and months preceding the battle of Iraqi Freedom, and these were frequently boasted about and shown and on T.V., they were housed in the best hotels (such as the Rashid hotel and the like) and looked after in a way that many of these miserable characters had never seen in their life before. The number of Arab volunteers was said to be about ten thousand just before the onset of military hostilities.

. Saddam realized very clearly what was going to happen and had no illusions about it. You must give him at least credit for that. If you saw him those days in public appearances he seemed to be almost in a trance. For someone like me who had the misfortune to observe this man for many years, it was clear to me personally that he was in a state of total despair and a kind of fatalist acceptance of his fate. So indeed, he was planning for the aftermath about which he had no illusions, for quite sometime before 2003. Thus, the presence of Al-Qaeda types, the Zarqawis and their alliance with the baathists were prepared carefully long before the events of April 2003. He laid the grounds and foundations for something that was going to grow and develop into the horror that we see today. These suicide volunteers were the unconventional weapon that Al-Sahaf, the famous and comical information minister of Saddam, boasted about so often before and during the military campaign. Well, this weapon may not have been very effective at the time, but it sure played a devastating role later on. Saddam knew that he had no immediate defense against a direct American assault, so he prepared for a different kind of response, a kind of posthumous revenge against all his enemies both American and Iraqi..

Let us next recall events in the immediate aftermath of the 9th of April 2003.

Next Post:

2- The Farhood.

THE EIGHTY PERCENT STRATEGY

Hi,

Quick Message.

A meeting of the highest significance and importance has just taken place. Abdul Aziz Al-Hakim, though much reviled and hated by the SodomoLadinists et al, is undoubtedly the highest Shiite figure ever to meet the American leadership at the highest level. This meeting has very profound meaning and is a very important message to the various factions in Iraq. I refer you to my previous post titled “Flirting with Sayid Ali”. There are basically two camps in Iraq now. Not a Shiite Camp and A Sunni camp, but a camp for the new order including a majority of the Shiites, the Kurds, and many Sunnis (for example the tribes of the Anbar Salvation Council, and many, many other Sunnis), and another camp that is composed of sectarian factions totally opposed to Democracy and pluralism including anarchistic revenge groups and gangs of both sects. The first camp is by far the majority of the people.

The strategic instinct of President Bush is guiding him in the right direction again despite all the confusion and pressures. I have always said that it is necessary not to lose site of the fundamentals of a situation, never to jeopardize the strategic base for the sake of any temporary tactical maneuvers. It is not a question of taking sides in a sectarian struggle. It is question of knowing where one’s real popular base is; of knowing who has real interest in seeing the success of one’s strategic goals and objectives. Nothing encourages the enemy like seeing confusion and disorientation of the Western leadership; and nothing discourages him more than seeing resolve and commitment otherwise. The enemies have be tackled one a time, and opening many fronts at the same time should be avoided, a fairly obvious axiom which is so often forgotten. If a fight is necessary, so be it; one side has to emerge victorious. This will only take place when the backbone of the enemy is broken thoroughly and definitively. History teaches us this. America itself would not be the Great nation that it is today had it not been for the victories of the American Revolution, and the American Civil War. This is the eighty percent strategy, this is right. We shall have more to say later God’s willing.

Goodnight.

سلم البزون شحمه

Hello again,

The title is an Iraqi proverb which may be roughly translated as follows: Entrust the cat to guard a piece of mutton fat; meaning what do you expect if you put a tomcat in charge of guarding a piece of fat?

There seems to be some real geniuses in Washington. I must say, the brilliance of these gentlemen really makes me speechless. It seems that the commission charged with preparing a report dealing with the Iraqi question has come up with the inspired solution that the matter should be entrusted to Iran and Syria of all other, after the U.S. washes her hands clean and go home to live in tranquility never to meddle in world affairs again. Of course it is not stated in these terms but rather couched in reasonable sounding phraseology: gradual reduction of troops; involvement of neighboring states such as Iran and Syria to help resolve the problems etc. etc. Well! Well! Well! Iran and Syria above all and by name, too!! I congratulate these astute gentlemen on this amazing discovery. The world hold its breath in waiting for the official issue of this great report, that President Bush is awaiting impatiently to enlighten him as to the proper direction of the Iraq policy.

But really, it is not right to burden these poor elderly gentlemen with such hard work; it is rather inhuman; what with the problems of old age, Alzheimer’s disease and all that. One fully understands their inclination towards rest and quiet retreat. No wonder we hear of reports that the President is not very enthusiastic about the recommendations of this report, although politely the white houses announces respectfully that they are awaited and will be considered carefully. Of course, if the United States does withdraw altogether and leave the Iraqi government out in the cold to manage on its own, the latter would have no option but to acquiesce into an alliance with these two regional powers, as the least evil of all available courses. At least neither of these two regimes is going to be as bent on genocide against the Shiites and the Kurds as others might be. Neither could be very interested in seeing the Saddamists , Al Qaeda or any such groups, take over. Indeed the outcome of the American project would be the creation of an Iranian-Iraqi-Syrian axis, an axis in which Iraq would be the junior and powerless partner, forced to follow all the dictates of its seniors. Deprived of all western support it would be desperate for any help from anybody who can help it fend off the savage sectarian and genocidal assault that would undoubtedly be raging in the country. Apart from Turkey, there are no serious military powers in the region to rival these two. Turkey would have to be satisfied or it might well intervene militarily and complicate matters. God only knows what might happen, but whatever that might be it cannot be good.

I don’t think though, that as long as George Bush is president, such disastrous ideas can find their way to implementation. There are other courses of action less harmful, and I am sure that the President will try his best to win the race against time before the end of his term. Let us wish him success from the bottom of our hearts.

RIGHTEOUS INDIGNATION

Hi,

We can’t in all honesty blame the American public for being frustrated at the failure of their government to resolve our Iraqi issue. If that is case, you can imagine how we the Iraqi people are feeling; we who are burning in the fires of the crisis and are being crucified daily in the most horrific way.

Yet, it is no use blaming those whose most urgent wish is to see the right outcome of this situation. We can’t blame the American people, whose indignation is righteous and is caused by their impatience at not seeing positive progress towards stability, democracy, reconstruction, respite from the daily horrors that goes on in Baghdad and elsewhere in the country, and generally progress towards the goals that we all wish for. This is righteous indignation, noble sentiments for which we as Iraqis should be appreciative and even grateful. Indeed, after all these sacrifices, there should be some more positive results to show for them. Yes indeed, when a great power with powerful allies, engaged in an enterprise that is basically very noble and enjoys the support of the majority of the people, stakes its reputation and prestige, not to mention the blood of its sons and daughters and the treasure of its land; it is not permissible to arrive at such a state of affairs as we have now. The consequences of failure are unthinkable not only for us, the Iraqis, but also for all free people in the world with the American people foremost, whether they belong to this party or that. Never mind the chorus of America haters, and all the discordant din of international hypocrisy. This fight against terrorism is more just than the struggle against fascism and Nazism was. There can be no neutrals in this battle. The terrorists are worst than the fascists, these killers specializing in murdering and torturing the innocent are by far more heinous than any other kind of vermin. No decent human being can find any excuses for these zombies. Worst still, anybody who heaps invective against those confronting this inhuman evil, is almost as guilty as the beast himself. America was not always right, but this time by God, its fight is a just as the sun is bright in an Iraqi summer day. Anybody who cannot see this is as blind in heart as in sight.

The only thing that America is guilty of is that of underestimating the viciousness of the enemy, and not so much his military capability; because the enemy’s weapon is not so much military prowess, but evil and viciousness. He specializes in hitting below the belt. He has no rules and no scruples, and will stop at nothing. He is absolutely devoid of any kind of human feeling. To think that you can reason with him or somehow accommodate his wishes and desires is absolute folly and suicide. This was clearly illustrated lately in Iraq when all kinds of overtures and approaches were made in forlorn hopes of appeasing him. This only resulted in boosting his morale and appetite for murder and violence. America seems to have become confused and loosing sight of the fundamentals of the issue and even who the real enemy is. Of course this was aided by a massive propaganda assault aimed directly at the American public from abroad and from within. Yet this is absolutely not a partisan issue. It is tragic that this matter is used for partisan purposes and for electoral considerations. When the ship of state starts sinking, it will take down everybody with it. You ask us Iraqis about this. And this is war, my friends. You can’t have half wars. In war you just have to go all the way. You either win or lose, and if you lose you are lost. In no other situation is this more true than this our war.

Democrat or republican, America has no option but to find a way to win this war. All real Americans must be as sure of that as all real Iraqis.

IN PRAISE OF TYRANNY

Hi,

I have no inclination to blog today. In fact I suffer certain relatively minor personal problems that oppress me at the moment. I just want you to look at this . So our kind leftists who care so much about humanity don't think that dictatorship and tyranny are as terrible as all that. This article is interesting because it expresses the point of view of many of the like of this individual. Read this my friends and wonder how low have our "humanitarian" liberals and leftists have sunk. I shall say no more.

Regards

NEWS FLASH

Hi,

The official spokesman for the "Anbar Salvation Council" has just appeared on the Al-Iraqia T.V. He announced that the Americans told the Council that if it tried to enter Ramadi to chase the terrorists out they would be confronting the American forces !! An astounding revelation which leaves one dumbfounded. From my own private sources, I heard many times that the Americans are not encouraging anti-terrorist elements to launch any large scale action against the enemy. Now this is stated openly by one of the official spokesmen of the Council. I wonder what is the real strategy of the Americans? I am mystified.

FLIRTING WITH SAYED ALI

Hi,

There is a popular Iraqi proverb known by everybody around here. Roughly translated it goes like this: “She neither got to keep her man nor managed to get Seyid Ali” (لا حظت برجيلها ولا خدت سيدعلي). The meaning should be obvious but still we explain it. It is about a woman who tried to get another man “Seyid Ali”; but the result of her flirtations was that she lost her husband and did not manage to get the other man who was only fooling around with her. The moral of this proverb should be clear.

At a time when the Sodomo-Ladinists proclaim the establishment of the "Islamic Republic of Iraq" which includes Baghdad (!!), and when large chunks of the capital (especially in the west) have virtually fallen to the terrorists where normal life has virtually come to a standstill, and innocent citizen are murdered in their own houses, and where shops are closed and street vendors are murdered on side pavements, and where corpses strewn in the streets and on pavements including men, women and even children have become daily sight; and when all this is taking place under the noses of the American and Iraqi forces; at this time it is concluded by some, that the problem is in areas outside the control of the abovementioned gentlemen, and we find the American forces surrounding the neighborhoods of Karadah and Sadr city, although it is only in such areas that any semblance of normal life goes on. And it seems that the problem is only the Mahdi army and that the Qaeda, the Mujahideen Shura Council, the Isalmic Army, Jaysh Muhammad, Ansar Al-Sunna, etc. etc. are harmless charity organizations that pose no danger and whose “human rights” are the main concern.

Of course, in a normal society, you don’t have armed groups running around outside the official law enforcement forces that alone have the right to carry arms and the duty to protect citizens and uphold Law and order. You only have to dial 999 and the police will come to your door. But do we have something like that here? A friend of mine had his son kidnapped for ransom last year, when the situation in Baghdad was much better by comparison with the present time. He went to the police asking for help. Do you know what they told him? They told him that they could do nothing about it and cheerfully reassured him not to worry as the gang was bound to contact him for ransom, and that he would do better to learn good bargaining technique to reduce his losses. The neighborhoods of Ghazaliya, Amiryah, Al-Jihad and others look like ghost towns at the moment. Many of the inhabitants have fled leaving their houses and all their belongings at the mercy of terror gangs to save their lives. Now that the death gangs (who do not all belong to the Mehdi army, by the way) ran out of Shiaas to murder in places like Amiriyah, they have turned against even the Sunnis. I can recount many horrific stories that I personally know for sure, but I would rather spare you the sordid details. I don’t mean to deny that the Shiaas are also guilty of retaliation and violent acts, but you have to remember who started this vicious cycle, and you have to remember that this was a premeditated plan that Al-Qaeda has been planning and implementing for a long time, as was explicitly described in that famous letter by the accursed defunct Zarqawi.

For the past year or so the Americans have been the main champions of Sunni rights and Sunni participation and all that. Of course it is right to uphold the rights of all communities and minorities, and it is right that the U.S. should not be seen to favor any particular group, sect or community. Everybody should have equal rights and equal opportunities. However, equal rights do not include license to terrorize and murder others and to insist on imposing the will of a minority over the majority, including demands to annul the political process altogether and cancel the results of the elections and the constitution which was approved by nationwide referendum. It got so far that there are secret negotiations between the Americans and “the resistance” in certain neighboring countries. The negotiations are mainly with the Baathists. There are reports that the U.S. has asked certain Arab regimes to intercede with the “insurrectionists” to beg them to lay down arms in return for God knows what kind of promises. And what kind of gratitude did the Americans get for their pains: the highest casualty rate since the end of major operations in 2003; and these casualties were not inflicted by the Mehdi army nor any other Shiite group for sure. In fact the Sodomo-Ladinists see all this as a sign of weakness and admission of defeat and are elated and are proclaiming their success and the soon to be achieved “final victory”, at the top of their voices in their propaganda organs whether on the internet or through their thinly disguised sympathizers and sponsors in certain Arab and non-Arab capitals. And the din of propaganda is getting more and more deafening from all sides. The objective of all this is so obvious. It is to break the will and morale of the American people above all, and to confuse the American leadership and lead them astray to policies and positions that are self defeating and counterproductive to say the least. And please don’t get me wrong, I still have the highest esteem, admiration and even affection for President Bush whom I think to be the most sober and clear minded of the lot. Yet the President is being subjected to terrible pressures from all sides and maybe some bad counsel too.

It is always important not to forget the fundamentals of any particular situation. And the fundamentals of the Iraqi issue consist of remembering which elements of the population have interest in the success of the new order and which other have lost privileges and interests and are trying with all their might to subvert and wreck the new system, with the hope of restoring their previous hegemony over society. They cannot seem to understand or accept that the previous state of affairs are quite impossible to bring back; that their stranglehold has been broken once and for all, by the American action; that not even America, which has been the main agent of the change cannot turn the clock back, even if we assume, for argument sake, that it wants to do that, which is highly unlikely. It is important not to lose sight of the essential facts on the ground; not to be so confused by the fog as to cease to distinguish who the real enemy is. Just ask yourselves the following questions:

- Who is responsible for most of the casualties that were suffered by the coalition forces.
- Who is responsible for beheadings, kidnappings, car bombs, attacks in market places etc. etc. ever since liberation in 2003.
- Who is responsible for sabotaging the essential services, electricity, water etc. etc.
- Etc. etc. etc.

Ask yourselves honestly and earnestly, and do not let propaganda and misinformation confuse you. I am sure the answers to the above questions are amply clear. The nature of the “insurgency” and its main perpetrators have been known and perfectly understood for a long time. President Bush himself has explained very clearly this matter on several occasions, not to mention other American and Iraqi officials. So let us not be like the soccer player who turns back to score in his own goal. But I am glad to see that there is at least one sober and wise person who understands this more than anybody else, and that is President Bush himself.

Regards

THE ANBAR SALVATION COUNCIL

Hi,

Actually, I think one of the most important developments recently is the situation in the Anbar and the rise of the anti-terrorist movement there in more developed and explicit form. This movement should neither be underestimated nor overestimated. But it is certainly real and a considerable split in the Tribes of the Dulaim. The U.S. forces have done a lot of work in this front since the beginning and have put in quite a lot of effort and have tried various approaches. In the Anbar, the Iraqi Government does not really exist at all, and it is only the American forces that have any real presence there apart from the various terrorist groups of-course. In the last year or so it seems that the Americans have been using a more subtle approach in trying to corner the enemy in certain locations and surround him without confronting him directly. It seems that he was allowed to concentrate in certain points (in and near the city of Ramadi) and almost given the freedom to exist and fester within these narrow boundaries. Thus the hapless inhabitants of these towns, such as Ramadi, were given the dubious honor of experiencing all the pleasures of living under the yoke of these hordes of Mujahideen who actually surpassed the Taliban in their zeal for various Godly practices.

For instance, here are some of the things that were declared haram (forbidden), not to mention the usual prohibitions of Islam that everybody knows:

- It is haram for men(let alone women) to wear shorts and even jeans, indeed the captain of the Iraqi tennis team was murdered in Baghdad for just this sin as he was leaving his house wearing one (to play tennis).
- It is haram for women to drive. Many women were murdered for this particular sin.
- It is haram to listen to music.
- Haircuts and hairdressing is haram and barbers and barber shops have been favorite targets.

All that is very well but wait for this:

- “Turshi”(pickled vegetables) is haram. I am told by some of my Ramadi acquaintances that jars of “Turshi” are secretly passed around much in the same way that drugs are traded elsewhere.
- Sammoun (bread that is baked in what is considered western style) is haram, and hence the many attacks on bakeries guilty of this practice.
- Last but not least, spoons forks and any such cutlery are haram !!!! The pious Islamic way is to eat with one’s bare hands.

The list can go on and on, with increasing absurdity. It gets to a point when it is clear that they want any excuse to murder people.

Can you imagine what it is like to be living under such regime, adding to that the lack of essential services and the total collapse of almost everything? In addition to that, the terrible murders and aggression against all kinds of ordinary and prominent people alike, including academicians, tribal leaders etc.; all that has resulted finally in the majority of the people of the Anbar reaching the limit and finally realizing the real source of their misery. And thus I can tell you with certainty, and based on personal acquaintances with people from that province, that the anti-terrorist movement there is real and widespread and given the right support and encouragement it could result in totally cleaning the Anbar in its entirety, which would be an important turning point in this war.

The fact that this "Anbar Salvation Council" that has proved its commitment against the terrorists is composed of the most Sunni of Sunnies, has the important effect of counteracting the sectarian tensions. And indeed already, strong expressions of support from the South and from Shiaa quarters have been expressed. The importance of this development should not be lost in the midst of the general “mess” (as expressed lately by President Bush). It is, in fact an opportunity to clean up this most strategic province and achieve an important milestone in this struggle. However, it is right that this movement should be carefully controlled and integrated within the framework of the Law and the Government. The locals have quite superior knowledge and intelligence of the nature and identity of the various terrorist groups, and have proved on several occasions their effectiveness against such groups. It is after all their homes and families that they are fighting for and they are not going to go elsewhere once they are in full control of their towns and villages. This is a genuine uprising of ordinary decent citizens who are thoroughly sick and tired of the scourge of this Sodo-Ladinist-Criminal gangs of zombies and vampires who do not represent any real ideology or civilization but are the putrid decomposing and stinking remains of a way of life that has died long time ago.

This is an urgent appeal to come to the aid of the risen decent tribes of the Anbar and to put this matter at the top list of priorities. You want some decent Sunnis to uphold, and redress the balance in the new political system? Well, here you have the right candidates. Help to boost, empower, organize and enable the "Anbar Awakening and Salvation Council" to launch the offensive and clean up their province and restore Law and Order. Do not allow the enemy to regroup and launch their counter offensive which is expected any moment now. Help the valiant Dulaim people accomplish what has eluded the U.S. and Government forces for more than than three years. It is in the Anbar that the problem has started and it is in the Anbar that it may end.

Wa Al Salmu Alaykum Warhmatullah

Hi,

The problem with the Mahdi Army is that its fortunes have changed dramatically particularly since the start of the civil strife (which we shall refrain from calling civil war). You should remember that when the 1st Mahdi Army uprising during the Alawi provisional government time, most Shiites shunned the Sadrists and despised them and the uprising was put down relatively easily. However, since the destruction of the Samara shrine, the Sadrists have emerged as the main active participants in the internecine civil struggle, and are seen by many Shiaas as their main defendants against the extremist Sunni attacks. Many Shiaas, particularly in the Baghdad area will tell you that if it hadn’t been for the Mehdi army not a single Shiite would have been able to stay in Baghdad. It must not be understood that I am trying to defend this Militia, but what I am trying to do is to state some facts that exist on the ground these days. I was planning to write to warn of this dangerous situation in which I have one of these feelings that the American are about to commit one of their big blunders.

Of course the Militia problem must be solved; of course the generally reiterated position regarding this issue whether by American or government sources is theoretically correct; however the problem is how to go about it. I don’t have much time today, however, since fighting has already started in Diwaniya and is likely to spread elsewhere, I feel it is urgent to sound the alarm. I am not condoning sectarian tit for tat reprisals; in fact only yesterday we have lost three members of our extended family who happened to be Sunnis at the hand of some sectarian gang. Nevertheless, I will state this emphatically, the U.S. army should not be enticed into any kind of military confrontation with the Mehdi army; as this can be quite disastrous and opens up a hellish new front and will not lead to any results other than driving this militia underground to splinter into proper clandestine terrorist organizations.

Another point that requires much explanation will be said today hurriedly. It is a strategic mistake to lump all events in the Middle East region into one basket. More specifically and frankly; the Israel-Lebanon conflict, the Iranian Issue, and the Shiaas in Iraq are three quite separate subjects. It is true that the main protagonists in all three can be labeled as Shiaas, but the common denominator ends there. The first is a border dispute about a farm and a question of prisoner exchange and not much more despite all the flamboyant rhetoric and high emotions. The second is basically the same old ancient Persian illusions of grandeur and nationalistic ambitions cloaked in religious garb. The third, i.e., the Shiaas in Iraq is a much more complex situation and is pivotal for the success of the mission in Iraq, which in itself is a key to influencing the other issues.

Allow me to pontificate a little, since this is the crazy cybernetic world of blogging; and hence let me imagine myself as some great theoretician and therefore I shall enunciate my views as some Laws:

Alaa’s first Law: The relations between the Shiaa’s of Iraq and Iran are reciprocally proportional to those between them and the United States. In other words; the worst the latter gets the closer becomes the first and vise versa. Therefore this question must be dealt with, with the utmost caution to avoid quite undesirable results.

Alaa’s second Law: The best way to confront the theocratic regime in Iran and all other dictatorships in the region is for the Iraqi experiment to succeed; that is something that is clearly understood by all around us, which explains their desperate efforts to abort this project. Therefore it is wise to concentrate on this matter and avoid opening new fronts at the moment.

Alaa’s Third Law: The United States of America has become the Sole Super Power in the world of today; and has been cast into this role almost despite itself; its success has been so unbelievably complete, especially after the dramatic collapse of the Soviet block, that it finds itself charged with such global responsibility that is almost unbearable and for which it may not be entirely prepared. Just look around you: which other nation has such armies and fleets and economic involvement spreading over the entire globe? Consequently America has become the obsession of friend and foe alike, world wide. Just listen to any standard discourse of our Arab commentators, for instance. You will hear the word America or something to do with America, in every other sentence; if not in each one. America is deified, demonized, believed to be the source of everything that is happening. My son once told me that one of his teachers (of wahabi sympathies) emphatically told his pupils in class, that it was America that caused the Tsunami that struck the shores of Asia. Ordinary American folk may not quite realize or understand this; it is rather like some of these fairy tales when some quite ordinary person finds himself crowned as King or something of the sort.

The question is this: Is the American political and social system really fit and prepared for such huge responsibility? That I shall leave to friends to ponder about.

What I really wanted to say in this respect is that American policy cannot afford to be subservient to any one particular concern, interest or pressure group. It has to take all aspects and all sides of issues into consideration.

Of course the issues that I raised today need to be discussed at much greater length and clarity. What I want to emphasize for today is an urgent advice to the Americans to deal with Sadrists in quite a different way from last time, i.e. politically and through their still great influence, while there is time. I am throwing these views into wide open debate and would be very interested to read the opinion of my friends.

Regards

BIBI

Hi,

It was quite sometime ago, in the early days of explosions in Baghdad, maybe a couple of years ago or more; I don’t remember. Those days almost seem to have been peaceful compared to nowadays. The scene was not particularly the most violent of what has become routine daily life around here. Yet, for some reason it continues to haunt me and always comes to my mind. There was this explosion near a house in the middle class neighborhood of Harithiya, West Baghdad. It was reported on T.V. and the reporter was near the house interviewing the neighbors etc., as this kind of event still made news then. The house itself had suffered some damage though not very extensive. It was one those typical villas of this part of Baghdad, with a nice garden and the kind of usual quite good hardwood furniture made by local carpenters out of teak wood. No doubt the owner of the house spent the better part of life in building a family, acquiring the house and furnishing it. You entered the guest room to see all the little trinkets and souvenirs that were collected for many years exhibited proudly to impress the guests, a valuable Persian carpet on the floor, and the inevitable sofa set which has been there most likely for many years. To cut it short this was the kind of family very similar to ours.

And there was this boy, he must have had ten years or so, quite decently dressed and handsome looking; and he was talking rapidly in an agitated way as boys do, trying to describe the explosion and how he was somewhere in the house and how he ran out to the street and then came back to the house and a lot of excited babble like that. “There was no one in the house, only Bibi, only Bibi” ( Bibi is the equivalent of Granny in your slang ), “only Bibi, only Bibi,” he kept repeating almost nonchalantly. “Bibi has died, Bibi has died”. I don’t remember exactly the rest of what he said but his bewildered face and excited tone, almost like when kids go on blabbering about something that astounded them and that they saw for the first time. This image keeps flashing in my mind ever since. This Bibi, clearly the grandmother of the boy, most likely on his mother’s side, is so typical of Iraqi households. Both parents, probably, were middle class working parents, usually government employees; and the boy typically brought up by his grandmother from his earliest childhood. Therefore Bibi, was the human being closest to this child; she held him when he was still a baby, fed him his milk bottles (the Mammiyah’s), changed his nappies, wiped his face, washed him, cleaned him; spent many a sleepless night by his side and all in all, was the real mother. The violent death of this old woman must have been a real trauma for this boy.

You see, we have in the house our own Bibi, may God protect her, she is the mother of my wife. We are indebted to her for bringing up all my children and looking after us for many years. She is now very old and senile, and no longer able to do anything. My children, now grown up, still call her Mamma. We would never abandon her for anything in the world. We could not go anywhere without her. She is just the most precious member of the family and in any kind of relocation or travel plan for the family she is a major consideration. I think you can understand why the incident of the boy affected me so much. I shudder as I try to avoid imaging him as one of my boys and his Bibi as our Bibi. It is a kind of nightmare.

I don’t think the Bibi of that boy died from any wounds, because there were few signs of any serious damage in the house. I imagine she must have been startled to death, shocked by something which she did not really understand, something so out of the ordinary. All these years of routine existence, cooking in the kitchen, washing dishes, hanging up the linen, looking after the children, waiting for her daughter and her husband to come home from work; all this ordinary uneventful existence, filled with the worries, little problems and tenderness of family life; all this came to a sudden brutal and violent end. And the little boy, what scar he is going to bear for the rest of his life, if he survives, that is! And how many other Bibi’s, and how many other children and parents and all sorts of ordinary people have suffered and met with such rude and violent end to their lives! You know, it is violence against the weak, the delicate and the frail that really pains the heart.

One of my favorite American writers was the playwright called “Tennessee Williams”. I never had the opportunity to watch any of his plays on stage, but I did see the films and also read some of his plays in print. What touched me most in his work was this compassion for the meek and the frail; for the suffering of the vulnerable and the weak. Violence inflicted upon the helpless is one of the most painful things in the world. Is pity a weakness that we should be ashamed of? One line in one of his plays (Night of the Iguana, if I remember right), has remained engraved in my mind and always remembered in difficult times. This was a verse of a pathetic poem written by one of his typically pathetic characters. The poem addresses a tree, admiring its perseverance and strength in standing erect and high for so long in the face of storms, tempests and hurricanes. I would like to conclude with these verses, hoping that I remember them correctly:

“Oh Courage, would you not as well,
Select a second place to dwell,
Not only in that Golden tree,
But in the frightened heart of me.”

Regards.

testing testing testing

Hi,

It seems that the trouble has not been the result of an attack but a malfunction from Blogger. Now it is working. I think I have something say which I consider important which should be forthcoming soon, Inshallah ( Gods Willing ).

Regards